The BSP could benefit from the increased distance between Congress and the SP.
In the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress along with the Samajwadi Party spoiled all equations for the BJP. The upshot of this is that the BJP cannot come to power alone in 2024 and must form a government with the help of allies. The SP became the largest party in the state with 37 seats and the number of seats in the Congress increased from 1 to 6. Five months later, amid a change in the political environment, the political distance between the Socialists and Congress began to widen. In this case, the Socialist Party of the Philippines stands to gain politically if its alliance with the Congress breaks down.
The friendship between the SP and the Congress is about to break down and they will contest the 2024 Lok Sabha elections together. The results of the Haryana, Maharashtra Assembly and Uttar Pradesh by-elections led to a tense relationship between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party and since then, all is said to have not been smooth between the two. Thereafter, the Samajwadi Party and the Congress stood face to face in the Lok Sabha on issues such as seat distribution, Samba violence, Adani issue and the Indian Union leadership.
Akhilesh-Rahul chemistry
After the successful Lok Sabha elections, the political chemistry between Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav can be seen everywhere from Parliament to the streets. Be it the Balaich incident in UP or the Ayodhya case, the Congress and the Samajwadi Party have tried their best to appear together on every issue, but Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi in the Sambhal case The news that Zhong announced his resignation did not attract the attention of the Socialist Party. SP national general secretary Ram Gopal Yadav questioned the handling of the Congress delegation.
The SP has openly supported Mamata Banerjee on the issue of leading the Indian Union. Since then, questions have arisen about whether the friendship between the Socialists and Congress will collapse ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections. However, their relationship soured during the Haryana elections. While the Congress did not offer seats to the Samajwadi Party in Haryana and Maharashtra, the Samajwadi Party also did not offer seats to the Congress in the Uttar Pradesh by-elections as per its wish. After this incident, the relationship between Congress and the Socialist Party was obviously no longer normal. After this, the SP did not like Rahul-Priyanka’s decision to maintain control.
Politics may take a new turn
If the alliance between the Congress and the Samajwadi Party breaks down, UP politics could take a new turn. In the Lok Sabha elections, soon after the elections, Mayawati started working to win over Dalit and Muslim votes, which she joined with the Congress party on constitutional and reservation issues. Mayawati, who will no longer open accounts in 2024, is making every effort to restore the BSP’s declining support base. Be it the issue of reservation classification or the Sambhar incident, Mayawati has expressed her views publicly. Apart from this, Mayawati also formulated a plan to return the backward Dalit and Muslim leaders who had left the BSP to their homes.
Party president Mayawati is disappointed with the repeated defeats the BSP has suffered in Uttar Pradesh politics. Mayawati’s plans to regain the Philippine central bank’s lost base of political support are failing. It has also become increasingly costly for the Philippine central bank to participate in the election alone. I believe that the Socialist Party of the Philippines will be happiest if the alliance between the Socialist Party and the Congress Party breaks down. Therefore, the option of new alliances will also be opened in UP. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas is closely monitoring the rapidly changing political developments and looking for political opportunities for itself.
Political parties must change their stance
Political analysts also believe that the party must now change its stance to save its survival and maintain its influence in national politics. Except for the 2007 UP elections, the BSP has always formed the government with the support of other political parties. Whenever Mayawati contests alliance elections, she gets benefits. The BSP’s move to contest the elections alone continues to backfire in Uttar Pradesh. In the 2022 parliamentary elections, the party won only the Rasra parliamentary seat in Ballia. It will not be able to win even a single seat in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, and the BSP is highly likely to open an account in the by-elections, and its own political support base has also declined.
Even though the BSP may not gain power through an alliance with UP, the party may gain MPs and MLAs to save its political existence. In this day and age, the political rise of the Socialist Party of the Philippines will not be easy without a coalition. If parties like the PPP and the Socialist Party enter into alliance politics, then the PPP will have to change its stance. If Mayawati wants to retain her support base and the political survival of the BSP, then she must return to coalition politics, otherwise the path forward will be very difficult.
