On the one hand, India’s population has surpassed China’s, but on the other hand, instead of controlling India, there are rumors that it wants to have more children in the southern states.
The chief ministers of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, two southern states, have called for having more and more children. The first appeal was filed by Andhra Pradesh CM Chandrababu Naidu. He said the elderly population was increasing in southern India, especially in Andhra Pradesh. He also said that the country’s fertility rate is 2.1, while Andhra Pradesh’s is 1.6, and if this continues, Andhra Pradesh will have a large elderly population by 2047.
Among other things, he said the government would soon introduce a new law after which only those with two or more children would be able to run in local elections.
Tamil Nadu CM MK Stalin went further. He even called on newlyweds to have 16 children. He also said that our population is decreasing and this will also affect our Lok Sabha seats, so why don’t we have 16 children each?
But what happened is that the southern states no longer considered having two children to be a sweet treat and things got to the point of having 16-16 children. In fact, there are some concerns and some politics behind this. First we need to understand why we should worry?
Is the elderly population increasing?
In India, youth is considered to be a person between the ages of 15 and 29 years. Currently, India has the largest youth population in the world.
The central government’s “Youth India 2022” report shows that by 2021, more than 27% of India’s population will be youth. At that time, the elderly population accounted for about 10%. But by 2031, the youth population is expected to decline to 24% and by 2036 to 22%.
Conversely, the elderly population is expected to increase. By 2021, the proportion of India’s population over 60 years old will reach 10%. By 2031, their population will increase to more than 13%. By 2036, 15% of India’s population will be over 60 years old.
Older Population and South V/s North
The population of southern states is growing at a slower rate than that of northern states. As a result, the elderly population here is growing and the young population is shrinking.
A central government report shows that by 2036, southern states will have more senior citizens than northern states. For example, 19% of the population of Andhra Pradesh, 23% of the population of Kerala, 17-17% of the population of Karnataka and Telangana, and 21% of the population of Tamil Nadu are above 60 years of age .
At the same time, numbers will decrease in the northern states. 12% of Uttar Pradesh’s population, 11% of Bihar’s population, 13-13% of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh’s population, 12% of Jharkhand’s population and 14% of Haryana’s population will be senior citizens .
But why is this so?
When the first census was conducted after independence in 1951, the country’s population was about 360 million rupees. By 1971, the population had increased to 550 million.
Therefore, in the 1970s, the government attached great importance to family planning. The result was that Southern states adopted it and controlled the population. However, this did not happen in the northern states, where the population continued to grow rapidly.
In this case, the southern states at that time raised questions about controlling population and reducing the number of seats in their states through family planning. Fewer seats means less representation in parliament.
A dispute ensued. Thereafter, by amending the constitution in 1976, it was decided that until 2001, seats in the Lok Sabha would be determined solely on the basis of the 1971 census. But in 2002, Atal’s government revised the limit again to 2026.
Also Read: Do you know how fast India is aging? What do statistics say about Chandrababu Naidu’s call to increase population?
What’s the political math behind this?
In fact, there should be one member of Congress for every one million people. Lok Sabha seats have been undelimited since 1971. If delimitation takes place, states with smaller populations will have fewer seats. However, in states where the population increases, the number of seats also increases.
Understand it this way, the current population of Tamil Nadu is estimated at 7.7 billion and there are 39 seats in the Lok Sabha. Madhya Pradesh, on the other hand, has a population of Rs 876 crore and has 29 Lok Sabha seats. If delimitation is carried out, Madhya Pradesh will have 87 Lok Sabha seats and Tamil Nadu will have 77 seats based on current population. This number of seats is calculated based on a formula of 1 member per 1 million people.
Let’s look at another example. The population of Kerala is estimated at Rs 359 crore. Currently, the Lok Sabha has 20 seats. Uttar Pradesh has a population of 238 million and has 80 parliamentarians. If the same 10 lakh package is implemented, the number of seats in the Lok Sabha in Kerala will increase to 35 or 36. The number of Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh is likely to be 235 or more.
To this end, the southern states opposed it. They only say that we have controlled the population and implemented the Centre’s plans and their Lok Sabha seats will be reduced.
Why is the youth population declining? Three major reasons…
1. Fertility rate: Fertility rates have been declining for years. Fertility rate refers to the average number of children a woman has. The fertility rate in 2011 was 2.4 and dropped to 2.1 in 2019.
2. Crude mortality rate: Death rates are now falling in India. The crude death rate is the number of deaths per 1,000 people. The crude death rate was 6.0 in 2019, compared with 7.1 in 2011.
3. Average age: The average age in India is also increasing now. As of 2014-18, the average age was 69.4 years, increasing to 70 years in 2016-20. That is, people are getting older now, so the elderly population is also increasing.
