Where did the BJP get the confidence to pass the “One Nation, One Election” bill? , Viewpoint

There was an interesting coincidence with the number 7 on Wednesday. The Congress party released its manifesto in Haryana, making seven promises. At the same time, the Modi government’s cabinet meeting approved seven proposals. The most prominent of these was “One Nation, One Election”. This meant that all elections should be held simultaneously. Obviously, most of the debate focused on this issue.

The NDA central government cabinet meeting was held on Wednesday. The meeting also approved the Chandrayaan-4 mission, but the biggest discussion was on the ‘One Nation, One Election’. Former President Ram Nath Kovind’s report on the matter was approved by the Union Cabinet. The report made detailed suggestions on how to conduct all major elections simultaneously across the country. The matter is complicated by the fact that under the ‘One Nation, One Election’, elections to the Lok Sabha, Parliament, municipal bodies and village councils are intended to be held simultaneously. Since it is a constitutional amendment bill, the Modi government will have to work hard to garner support. Let’s understand why conducting the ‘One Nation, One Election’ will be a difficult task, like bringing the Ganges to the earth.

1- The constitution must be amended for “one country, one election”, which requires the support of two-thirds of the members.

For a country, an election, the government first has to propose a bill. Since these bills will amend the constitution, they can only be passed with the support of two-thirds of the members of parliament. That is, to pass the bill in the House of Representatives, it needs the support of at least 362 members and 163 members of the Federal Council, and after passing the parliament, the bill needs to be approved by the legislative assemblies of at least 15 states. This means that the bill also needs to be passed by the legislative assemblies of 15 states. After that, these bills will become laws only after the president signs them.

With the latest round of Rajya Sabha elections, the BJP-led NDA alliance has gained 12 members to secure a majority in the House. The BJP, which has been the largest party in the Upper House for some time, has grown to 96 members, while the National Democratic Alliance, along with its allies, six nominated MLAs and two independents, currently has the support of 119 MLAs. But to amend the Constitution, the NDA will need 163 members. Secondly, one or two parties in the NDA may oppose it. But at the same time, some political parties can also sign a non-disclosure agreement in the name of one nation, one election. But even after that, gathering the magic figures for the parties in both the Houses, be it the Lok Sabha or the Rajya Sabha, will prove to be a difficult task. Currently, 21 states have NDA governments. So, there will be no problem in getting the bill approved in half of the states.

2- The BJP does not have an absolute majority at the Centre and 15 political parties are openly opposed to it.

The committee headed by former President Ram Nath Kovind has contacted 62 political parties. Of these, 32 supported One Nation, One Election. However, 15 parties were against it. Fifteen parties did not give any reply, the biggest problem is that the BJP’s biggest ally TDP is still unable to create an atmosphere for the law, but JDU and LJP have agreed. Fifteen parties including the country’s main opposition Congress, Samajwadi Party, Aam Aadmi Party, CPM and PJP have expressed opposition. While 15 parties including Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, TDP, BJP did not give any reply. Some of them may join the BJP in the future, but the hope is slim.

3. Will it be passed or will it be referred to a parliamentary committee like the Waqf Act Amendment Bill?

In fact, it does not seem impossible that the BJP would do this just to send a message to the nation, given the current political scenario in the country, where the BJP is constantly heading for weakness. If the BJP had won the assemblies in Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir, then the BJP might have been ready to take this bold step. Otherwise the BJP would not have taken much risk for this law. In fact, it is very difficult to pass the One Nation One Election law. Secondly, the BJP stands to gain very little from it in comparison. Because this law is not for the benefit of any particular community, class or region, and therefore, it will not bring any political benefit to the BJP either, which it would have done if the BJP felt that much effort had to be put into this law. The BJP would have felt that it should be referred to a parliamentary committee like the Waqf Amendment Bill.

4- Is the BJP just trying to send the message that it has taken a meaningful step to hold all elections simultaneously?

From the beginning, the BJP has placed national interest above any political interest. One Nation One Election is a law very similar to this, which will benefit the country more than the BJP. Most importantly for the Communist Party, if it tries to get this law passed, its image as a staunch supporter of administrative and political purity will be further strengthened. This will prove to be a panacea for the BJP at a time when its nationalist image is waning.

5- Alternatively, in some cases, a one nation, one election bill could be passed.

Elections are coming up in Jammu Kashmir and Haryana. BJP is the main contender in both the states. There is a chance that BJP will succeed in forming the government in both the states. If this happens, then the party will become stronger in the Rajya Sabha and the party will recover somewhat from the current atmosphere of despair. In this way, the number of governments in a state will increase. There is also a chance that BJP will let the opposition flex its muscles by amending a less controversial law. In fact, this law can prove to be a panacea for BJP to continue in power in the future. Narendra Modi remains the biggest pan-Indian leader in the country. In many states, if people who voted for other parties vote for BJP in the Lok Sabha elections, then the image of Narendra Modi is at work behind the scenes. Obviously, when the central and state elections are held simultaneously, Modi’s influence will be greater than other leaders.