Aaj Tak/India Today’s Mood of the Nation Survey is indicating something different about Haryana and Maharashtra. If the survey is to be believed, the results of the Haryana and Maharashtra assembly elections can be completely different from the Lok Sabha results – and the results of Hemant Soren’s experiments in Jharkhand can also be different from expectations.
If we look at the Lok Sabha elections, the results of Aaj Tak’s Mood of the Nation survey for Haryana and Maharashtra indicate something different. In Haryana, the performance of both BJP and Congress was equal. Both got 5 seats each, while in Maharashtra, the performance of Congress was excellent.
While Jharkhand politics is in turmoil due to Champai Soren’s rebellion, there is a different problem regarding the Chief Minister’s post in Maharashtra’s INDIA block. Uddhav Thackeray wants that the face for the Chief Minister’s post in the Mahavikas Aghadi should be decided beforehand. After not getting any response from Sonia Gandhi and Sharad Pawar, he is now saying that even if the Chief Minister’s face is not announced, it should be decided. Remember, Uddhav Thackeray had broken the alliance with BJP over the Chief Minister’s chair. If he does not take care, then this campaign of Uddhav Thackeray will go in favor of BJP.
If we look at people’s opinion about the three chief ministers, Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde stands first, but despite the announcement of many welfare schemes, fewer people have expressed satisfaction in the rule of Haryana Chief Minister Naib Singh Saini as compared to Eknath Shinde.
There seems to be a possibility of a big upset in Haryana
It does not seem that the BJP had changed the Chief Minister in Haryana with the intention of changing him. Manohar Lal Khattar was included in the Union Cabinet after winning the Lok Sabha elections so that the Punjabi community does not get angry with his removal.
Only 22 percent of the people included in the MOTN survey have expressed satisfaction with the performance of Chief Minister Naib Saini, while 40 percent people are expressing dissatisfaction with his work. Yes, there are 19 percent people who are found to be somewhat satisfied with the way Naib Saini works.
As far as the performance of the Haryana government is concerned, 27 percent people have expressed satisfaction, while 44 percent people say that they are dissatisfied with the work of the government. 25 percent people of Haryana have no special complaints with the functioning of the BJP government to some extent.
If we look at it, despite the various welfare schemes brought by Chief Minister Naib Singh Saini, it does not seem that he will be able to do any special wonders. Keeping the elections in mind, efforts have been made to please the farmers on the pretext of MSP, but after looking at the survey, it seems that BJP will have to enter the election field with the help of Brand Modi.
Will the results of Maharashtra be different from the Lok Sabha?
Talking about the work of Maharashtra Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, 35% of the people surveyed are found to be satisfied, while 31% people are expressing some degree of satisfaction. Although 28% people are not satisfied with the work of Eknath Shinde – but this number is very less compared to the Chief Minister of Haryana.
According to the MOTN survey, 25% people have expressed satisfaction with the work of the government in Maharashtra, but this number is slightly less than that of the BJP government in Haryana. 34% people in Maharashtra are somewhat satisfied with the work of the government – but 34% people have also expressed dissatisfaction with the work of the Maharashtra government.
In the Lok Sabha elections, BJP had not only lagged behind Congress, but its alliance partners Shiv Sena and NCP also proved to be laggards in front of their old allies. In Maharashtra, Congress had got 13 seats, while BJP was limited to only 9 – now if we look at it accordingly, then the Mood of the Nation survey has expressed a different opinion than the way people had cast their votes.
What will happen to Hemant Soren in Jharkhand?
As soon as Hemant Soren was released from jail in Jharkhand, he took over the seat of Chief Minister, but its effect was that now Champai Soren has rebelled in Jharkhand Mukti Morcha. Earlier there were reports of Champai Soren joining BJP, but now he himself has made it clear that he will form his own new political party.
In the Mood of the Nation survey, 25 percent of the people of Jharkhand are expressing satisfaction with the work of Hemant Soren, and there are 30 percent people who find the work of Hemant Soren satisfactory, but the number of such people is also 35 percent who do not find Hemant Soren’s new innings satisfactory.
As far as the functioning of the JMM government of Jharkhand is concerned, 27 percent people are said to be satisfied, and similarly 34 percent people included in the survey have been found to be somewhat satisfied with the work of the government, but the matter of concern for Hemant Soren is that 37 percent people have expressed dissatisfaction with the functioning of the government.
In the Lok Sabha elections, BJP’s performance was much better than the ruling JMM in Jharkhand. Despite being in power and Hemant Soren being sent to jail, JMM could only get 3 Lok Sabha seats, while BJP was successful in winning 8 Lok Sabha seats.
First of all, in assembly elections, the entire responsibility lies on regional leaders, but if like in Lok Sabha, this time too the contest is between NDA and INDIA block i.e. Prime Minister Narendra Modi versus Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi, then the results can be different.
The Mood of the Nation survey has revealed that if elections are held today, the NDA may gain 6 seats and the opposition alliance may lose one seat. This is telling that people’s perception about the BJP, which came to power after falling short of a majority on its own, is changing, and the future of the opposition can also be predicted accordingly.
If we talk about the change in popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi, then in the last 6 months, Rahul Gandhi’s popularity has increased a lot, whereas in the case of Modi, a decline is being seen.
In February 2024, just before the Lok Sabha elections, 14% people in the Mood of the Nation survey were saying that Rahul Gandhi was their choice for the Prime Minister, but after he became the leader of the opposition, the number of such people has now increased to 22%. Similarly, in February 2024, 55% people were found to be seeing Modi as the Prime Minister, but now it has come down to 49%, but there is still a gap of 27% i.e. almost half between the two leaders – can this also have any impact on the assembly elections?