By-elections in nine seats in Uttar Pradesh have become a matter of concern for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the opposition Samajwadi Party (SP). The Bharatiya Janata Party fielded an army of ministers, MLAs and MPs on the bypoll seats, while the Samajwadi Party went all out. The fight between the ruling party and the main opposition party has become triangular with the entry of Mayawati-led Samajwadi Party (BSP). The question is, in which seat can the social engineering of the Socialist Party of the Philippines, which often does not field candidates in by-elections, spoil whose game this time? Where does the caste equation exist?
Whose race will BSP spoil in which seat?
In allocating tickets for by-elections to nine seats, Mayawati’s party insisted on fielding candidates from different castes and sects rather than favoring any one caste or community. Here, the equation for each seat is also considered. What is the caste equation in which seat and whom can BSP hurt?
kundalki
Talking about Kundalki Assembly seat in Moradabad district, it is a Muslim-dominated seat. More than half (about 60%) of the population of Kundarki constituency is Muslim. Kundarki assembly constituency has a total of 3,09,50,375 voters. Among them, the number of Hindu voters is 105,600. Dalits also form a large part of the Hindu electorate. The number of Muslim voters is 203,900,375, including 1,015,000 ordinary Muslim voters and 1,024,000 375 backward class (Muslim) voters.
The BJP has given the election to Ramveer Singh Thakur in this seat, which has about 40% Hindu population. Ramveer’s Thakur community is estimated to have a population of 30,000 to 35,000 in Kundarki district. Haji Rizwan is contesting from the Socialist Party, while the Socialist Party of the Philippines fielded Rafatullah alias Neta Chida in the by-election. Rafatullah comes from the Turkish community, which is the most influential Muslim community in the constituency. Talking about the 2022 assembly elections, SP MLA Zia ur Rehman is also from the Turkish community.
While the Samajwadi Party is confident of securing victory with the help of outright Muslim votes and some Dalit votes, the BJP is also hoping for a lotus bloom in Kundalki with the help of outright Hindu votes and some Turk votes. BSP also has its own mathematics. Mayawati’s party is trying to establish an equation between Turkish and Dalit votes. The Samajwadi Party may suffer if Mayawati’s party mounts a fierce fight in Kundalki region and succeeds in denting Dalit-Turk votes.
Ghaziabad
In the Ghaziabad seat, the BJP has fielded Sanjiv Sharma from the Brahmin faction, the Janata Party has fielded Janata Garg as Vaishya and the Samajwadi Party has fielded Singh Raj Jatav from the Dalit faction. Talking about the caste equation in this assembly seat, this urban seat has around 25% Dalit Muslim voters. Of the total 4 lakh 61,000 voters, around 80,000 are Dalit voters and 35,000 are Muslim voters. The BSP has fielded a candidate from the Vaishya community, considered the traditional constituency of the BJP. If the BSP succeeds in breaking into the Vaishya vote bank, it could cause harm to the BJP.
good (safe)
Well, parliamentary seats are reserved for scheduled castes. Surendra Diler of the BJP, Dr Charu Kane of the SP, Dr Pahal Singh of the BSP and Nitin Kumar Chotel of the Azad Samaj Party are vying for this seat. If we talk about the caste equation of this seat, the Jat population is maximum here. The number of Jat voters exceeds 101,000. Kher has about 50,000 Dalits, about 50,000 upper castes and over 30,000 Dalit voters. There are also a staggering number of voters from Vaishya and OBC categories. Jat and upper caste voters play a decisive role in deciding the outcome in this seat.
Cajal
The Kalha assembly seat, which fell vacant due to Akhilesh Yadav’s resignation, has been a Samajwadi Party stronghold. In Kahar seat, SP has fielded Tej Pratap Yadav, BJP has fielded Anujesh Yadav and BSP has fielded Dr Avnish Shakya. Coming to the caste equation, in Kharhar there are about 30% Yadavs, 15% Shakyas, 14% Dalits, 9% Thakur, 6% Brahmins, 3 % of Lodi people, 5% of Muslims and 18% of other voters. Both the BJP and SP are betting on Yadav’s face. In this case, if Shakyas and Dalits come together, then BSP will spoil the game for both parties.
Purpur
The BJP has given votes to Deepak Patel and the SP to Mustafa Siddiqui from Pulpur seat in Prayagraj district , while the BJP went to Jitendra Singh. The Bharatiya Janata Party, which fielded a candidate from the Patel community, the most populous community after Dalit voters, played the upper-caste card. The SP has fielded a Muslim candidate in this seat.
Also read: UP by-election: Dalit and Muslim voters in decisive position in Ghaziabad Sardar seat.
Talking about the caste equation, there are about 400,000 voters in Purpur, the largest of which are 75,000 Dalits, 70,000 Patels, 60,000 Yadavs, 50,000 Muslims, 45,000 Brahmins, 22,000 Nishads and 15,000 Rajput voters. The upper castes are seen as voters for the BJP. In this case, the BSP’s forewarning could harm the ruling party.
Kate Harry
In the Katehari seat in Ambedkarnagar district, the three major parties BJP, SP and BSP have all bet on the OBC candidate. Dharamraj Nishad is the candidate of the BJP, Shobhavati Verma from SP and Amit Verma from BSP. The BSP has also nominated a candidate belonging to the same caste as the SP. In this case, the SP is considered to be at greater risk than the BSP of losing the seat.
Also read: BJP’s special plan for BJP by-elections, Sangh is also active and the army of ministers, MLAs and MPs will remain at ground zero.
Talking about the caste equation in Kaitri, there are around four lakh voters here, of whom around one lakh are Dalits. Katehari parliamentary constituency has about 50,000 Brahmins, 30,000 Rajputs, 45,000 Kurmi, 40,000 Muslims and 30,000 Nishad voters. Around 22,000 Yadav and 20,000 Rajbal voters also play a decisive role in deciding the outcome of this seat. The candidates of both the SP and BSP parties are from the Kurmi caste.
middle one
In Majhwan assembly seat in Mirzapur district, the PPP fielded former MP Muchismita Maurya, the Socialist Party fielded Jyoti Bind and the PPP fielded Deepak Tiwari. Brahmins are considered voters of the BJP, which has voted from this community in this seat. In this case, if the BSP can weaken the Brahmin vote bank, it will hurt the BJP.
Also Read: 3 Political Parties – 3 Experiments in Uttar Pradesh by-elections… Know what the BJP, Samajwadi Party and Janata Party are doing to conquer the fort.
Talking about the caste equation of this seat, this assembly constituency has almost equal numbers of Dalit, Brahmin and Binder voters. Around 30,000 Kushwahars, 22,000 to 22,000 shepherds and Muslims, 20,000 Rajputs and 16,000 Patels also play a decisive role in deciding the outcome of Majhwan.
Sissa Mau
The Bharatiya Janata Party and the Samajwadi Party of the Philippines fielded Brahmin candidates from Kanpur’s Sissamao constituency, while the Samajwadi Party played the Muslim card. SP has given the ticket to Irfan Solanki’s wife Naseem Solanki, BJP to Suresh Awasthi and BSP to Virendra Shukla. If the BSP is able to weaken the Brahmin vote bank, it will only heighten tensions for the BJP. Talking about the caste equation, it is estimated that Si Samau has about 40% Muslim voters. Along with Brahmins and Dalits, voters from Kayastha and other backward classes also play a decisive role in the West Samau seat.
Mirapur
The Rashtriya Lok Dal, an ally of the BJP, has fielded a candidate from the Merapur assembly seat in the Muslim-dominated Muzaffarnagar district. RLD has fielded Mithilesh Pal as its candidate. While SP fielded Sumbul Rana, BSP fielded Shahnazar. BSP’s Muslim card may harm SP. If we talk about the caste equation of this seat, the number of voters from Muslim and OBC categories is almost equal. Meerapur assembly constituency is estimated to have around 38% OBC, 37% Muslim and 19% Dalit voters.
