NEW DELHI: The 2024 UK general election results, expected to be declared by late morning of July 5 (IST), are expected to have minor impact on India-UK relations as both the Rishi Sunak-led Conservative (Tory) and Keir Rodney Starmer-led Labour parties have expressed support for strengthening ties with India.
While there should be no major impact in the bilateral relationship regardless of the election outcome, the snap poll has diminished the prospects of the much-anticipated India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) being finalised by the current Conservative government led by Sunak.
While there should be no major impact in the bilateral relationship regardless of the election outcome, the snap poll has diminished the prospects of the much-anticipated India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) being finalised by the current Conservative government led by Sunak.
The Labour Party, widely expected to form the next government, has maintained its commitment to completing the FTA, though the timelines will remain uncertain for some time. Starmer has said he is also committed to deepening cooperation with India in areas like technology, climate change, and education.
Impact on India-UK FTA negotiations
- The snap election has diminished the prospects of the India-UK FTA being finalised by the current Tory government led by Rishi Sunak. The negotiations, which began in January 2022, were originally aimed at completing the deal by Diwali 2022.
- However, the election has “skewered any prospect of the finalisation of the long-awaited and much-anticipated FTA with India by a Conservative government,” according to Rahul Roy-Chaudhury of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
- The Labour Party, widely expected to form the next government, has maintained its commitment to completing the FTA, though the timelines will remain uncertain for some time. Labour has maintained steadfast support for such a deal, subject to examining the “fine print” once in office.
- Key sticking points in the FTA negotiations include India’s demand for greater access for its skilled professionals in the UK market and the UK’s push for lower import duties on goods like Scotch whisky and electric vehicles.
- Immigration remains a contentious issue, with both major parties agreeing on the need to restrict it, which could be a sticking point for India’s demand for temporary visas for its service sector workforce.
- Labour has criticised the Conservatives for “over-promising and under-delivering” on the UK-India FTA and declared it is “ready to go” on finalising the deal if elected.
- Shadow foreign secretary David Lammy said the FTA should be “a floor not a ceiling” for the partnership and aims to have it done by the end of 2024 if Labour wins the election.
India and the UK have completed 13 rounds of FTA negotiations to enhance their estimated £38.1 billion annual trading relationship.
Defence and security cooperation
- The India-UK defence and security partnership is likely to continue strengthening, building on recent momentum from the 2+2 mechanism and defence minister Rajnath Singh’s visit in early 2024 – the first such visit in 22 years.
- Given the evolving strategic landscape of the Indo-Pacific region, the Sunak-led Conservative government had pivoted towards “like-minded” partners such as India to support a rules-based order. This has led to increasing India-UK strategic engagement in the Indo-Pacific, with both countries ramping up maritime presence through joint military exercises, enhanced naval interoperability, and collaboration in maritime domain awareness, counterterrorism and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) activities, said a repot by the Observer Research Foundation.
- Labour plans to work with India to promote a “free and open Indo-Pacific” based on a rules-based order, in contrast to countries seeking to redraw borders by force, Shadow foreign secretary David Lammy said.
- There may be some uncertainty around whether a Labour government would maintain the Indo-Pacific tilt initiated by the Conservatives.
- While the Labour Party is expected to maintain the UK’s support for Ukraine against Russia, there could be some shifts in the UK’s approach to the Israel-Palestine conflict, with plans to stop arms sales to Israel.
- Lammy has stated that “the areas of cooperation and the areas for learning are limitless” between the UK and India on cybersecurity.
Political experts believe that if Labour comes to power — as is widely expected — then Starmer as PM will make UK-India economic partnership a priority in the Indo-Pacific, with the FTA as a foundation to expand cooperation in areas like climate, technology, and supply chains.
(With inputs from agencies)