Tennis Armageddon is coming; the end of days the sport has dreaded for 20 years, when the four horsemen of the apocalypse arrive to bear off the last of the quartet who have carried the game on their shoulders.
Roger Federer went in 2022, Rafael Nadal and Andy Murray will follow him soon and even the ageless one, Novak Djokovic, is showing signs of slowing.
But lo and behold, instead of this being a time of falling attendance and waning interest as those three remaining titans become less and less relevant, the sport is booming.
All four Grand Slams broke attendance records in each of their last two stagings and the 2023 Wimbledon final was watched by an average of 6.8 million people, with a peak of 11.3m – by both metrics the most since Murray won his second title in 2016 and more than the last all-Big Four final, Djokovic’s five-set win against Federer in 2019.
So why are audiences still flocking to tennis despite the loss of its most iconic, recognisable and marketable stars? Covid-19 has something to do with it and, possibly, so does Hollywood actress Zendaya.
But the main reason is that, just as the sport’s powerbrokers were looking heavenwards in despair at the departure of the thrice-sainted Federer, Carlos Alcaraz dropped into their laps like a gift from the gods.
For over two decades tennis has been defined by the ‘Big 4’ – Rafael Nadal, Andy Murray, Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic (left to right)
Federer is the first of the generation to retire (in 2022) with Nadal (right) and Murray expected to follow suit shortly
But like a bolt from the blue, Carlos Alcaraz (left) has stormed up the rankings to announce the start of a new period
In January last year the ATP and WTA collaborated with Netflix to release Break Point, an attempt to ape the success of Formula One behemoth Drive to Survive – and to showcase some of the newer generation of stars.
Viewing figures were disappointing. The shows’ producers felt they were not given the same level of access as on Drive to Survive, and not enough of the sport’s marquee names jumped on board.
What happened in March of this year summed up the direction of travel: on March 9, Netflix announced Break Point would not return for a third season. On March 14, they revealed a new tennis show: Alcaraz: the Docuseries.
The sport’s cognoscenti have known about this extravagantly gifted Spaniard for some time but Alcaraz exploded into the mainstream in 2022. He won titles in Rio, Miami, Barcelona, Madrid and – the big apple on top of the cake – the US Open. He started the year outside the top 30 and ended it as the youngest men’s world No1 in history.
The 21-year-old has the results of a seasoned champion and the wide-eyed wonder of a rookie. As one veteran tennis broadcaster told me: ‘It’s like even he can’t believe some of the shots he hits.’
The Spaniard’s meteoric rise has seen him become the youngest Grand Slam champion on all three surfaces in men’s singles history
As well as his inventive and eye-popping play, Alcaraz has a charismatic on-court persona
The 21-year-old claimed his first French Open title at the start of the month and arrives in SW19 to defend his title
Mail Sport spoke to two industry experts from the opposite ends of the spectrum – Annabel Croft, who will return as a BBC pundit at Wimbledon this year, and David Egdes, vice president at the Tennis Channel, a 24/7 streaming platform which dominates US coverage – about why Alcaraz appeals to both the mainstream and to heavily-invested tennis fans, and how the sport is positioned in this pivotal moment.
‘I think everything in life is under threat from entertainment you can watch any time, anywhere,’ says Croft. ‘Tennis needs characters and it needs quality – people appreciate quality. It does feel like we’ve been in a golden era but it’s for this next generation to keep up to what those players brought.
‘Federer was one of the greatest communicators I’ve ever witnessed in sport. He was almost like a messiah – if he was a religion people would have followed him.
‘But Alcaraz has something special. He has such a joyful, playful personality and it doesn’t matter what generation you are people gravitate towards him. He has a warmth.’
Egdes, who worked closely with the Big Four in a previous incarnation as players’ representative on the ATP board of directors, believes the sport is moving on seamlessly.
Alcaraz will continue to bridge a gap between past and present when he partners his compatriot at the Paris Olympics
Andy Murray has confirmed that he hopes to play his final Wimbledon tournament this week
On the retirement of Federer, he begins: ‘It was a transitional moment – and incredibly sad because people felt like Roger was one of them. He was an extension people’s identity and they came to love the sport through Roger or Rafa.
‘As much as we miss them the next generation is coming along so quickly that we aren’t really missing a beat if you look at fan interest. And not just the Grand Slams: Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid, Rome – they were breaking records in terms of attendance.’
The two eras have dovetailed neatly with the rivalry between Djokovic and Alcaraz. That was not the case when Federer emerged – he only faced Pete Sampras once and although he played Andre Agassi 11 times he won all of the last eight, so not much of a rivalry.
The narrative of grand master facing the prodigy is compelling and it reached a climax when Alcaraz beat Djokovic in a sensational Wimbledon final last year. The fact that viewing figures that day eclipsed those for Federer’s last final here – and it is a direct comparison, given both were facing Djokovic in five-set matches – shows how quickly Alcaraz has forged a connection with fans.
On Alcaraz, Egdes says: ‘Everybody is in absolute awe of his ability to hit shots that have never been hit before. The flavour and flair he brings – it’s a combination of Roger, Rafa, Novak, Becker, Agassi, all blended together into this perfect game. And you top it off with a personality that is incredible: he’ll smile during a match and treat everybody with ultimate respect but he’ll fight and chase and never give up any point.
Like Federer and Nadal, Alcaraz’s star is burnished by the fact that he has a direct rival talent
Jannik Sinner is the cool, effortless yin to Alcaraz’s explosive yang – and the new world No1
‘Even if he’s playing a first-round match its compelling to watch.’
So Alcaraz has the game, he has the charisma and – crucially – he also has the rival. Jannik Sinner is the silky-smooth, effortless yin to Alcaraz’s explosive yang.
They have faced each other nine times so far, with Alcaraz edging ahead after his five-set win in the French Open semi-finals. The rivalry is beautifully poised and the All England Club will be praying meeting No10 comes in in the semi-finals next week.
‘When they play each other there were no antics, no meltdowns, no bad behaviour – it is just purely about the tennis and the respect between them and let the best man win,’ says Croft.
‘Federer and Nadal had that kind of rivalry: the two minds going up against each other, two strong stubborn competitors who bring different elements and qualities. I feel like we’re at the beginning of a very great rivalry.’
The Federer-Nadal comparison rears its head in almost every conversation about the new kids on the block.
Sinner claimed a title on grass at Halle in the build-up to Wimbledon and will look to go a step further than last year’s semi-final
The Italian won his first Grand Slam in Australia at the start of the year in Melbourne
‘Alcaraz and Sinner have picked up where Roger and Rafa left off,’ says Egdes. ‘Fans are mesmerised by this new rivalry.
‘Sinner is this gracious, tall, elegant Italian who speaks German and English, who has grown up as a skier, who is focused on everything happening between the lines. He is the straight, dedicated athlete versus the flamboyant Alcaraz. They contrast each other in style so well.’
We cannot give Alcaraz and Sinner all the credit for tennis’s recent growth, however. There is significant evidence that the Covid-19 pandemic has contributed to a rise in interest in the sport.
As an outdoor and naturally social-distanced game, tennis was one of the few sports to be admissible through much of the global lockdowns. That brought new players into the game and the evidence suggests they have been retained. Participation increased by 35 per cent in the USA between 2019 and 2023, and by 44 per cent in Britain over the same period.
There were 639,000 tennis club members in the UK in 2021 and now there are 859,421 – a 34 per cent rise. My own club, Coolhurst in north London, never had a waiting list pre-Covid but now has almost 800 people looking to join, with another 10 names being added each week.
More players will naturally transition into more fans, and as an almost 365-day sport tennis was available to watch year-round during lockdowns. In the UK at least, having a full five weeks of free-to-air grass court tennis is crucial for retaining interest.
Fans are once again expected to flood through the gates at Wimbledon during this fortnight
The sport received an unexpected boost in the form of box office hit Challengers, starring Zendaya (pictured with co-stars Mike Faist and Josh O’Connor at the Monte Carlo Open)
There is also an economic element post-Covid. A study by the International Money Fund showed that middle and higher income families saved around 15 per cent more during the pandemic. Tennis’s core audience is among that demographic and with attendances rising it seems they are spending some of that disposable income attending events.
There is a feeling within the industry that fans felt starved of live action during Covid and are returning with a vengeance. Amelie Mauresmo, Roland Garros tournament director, said during this year’s event: ‘After Covid, we saw a change in people’s behaviour in terms of atmosphere. The emotions came back and people were thirsty to relive this kind of emotion.’ Mauresmo eventually decided French fans were so thirsty she had to ban booze, but that’s another story.
One final point in tennis’s favour recently: it never hurts to have a sexy, box-office smash hit about your sport. Italian director Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers came out in April this year, starring pop-culture icon Zendaya as the apex of a tennis love triangle. A study by consultancy firm Venture Smarter revealed that searches for ‘tennis lessons’ rose by 245 per cent worldwide in the month after the film’s release.
So now we just need Alcaraz and Sinner to start fighting over the same woman, and the days of Federer, Nadal, Djokovic and Murray will be well and truly behind us…