Mallikarjun Kharge, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar.
After the Maharashtra polls, there is now a debate about political arithmetic. No party appears to have a majority in the polls, which will heighten tensions in Maha Vikas Aghadi. In the Lok Sabha elections held four months ago, Mahavikas Aghadi led with 151 seats.
In this context, the question being raised is what happened in the last 4 months when Mahavikas Aghadi was struggling to reach the 145 people needed to form a government?
1. Congress created the seat allocation problem.
Seat allocation for Mahavikas Aghadi continues to make headlines. Congress local units are not ready to compete for less than 120 seats. Finally, with the intervention of the High Command, the party formally agreed to accept 102 seats.
During this period, news of the Shiv Sena’s (UBT) feud with the Congress party was widely discussed. The BJP also tried to raise this as an issue and termed Maha Vikas Aghadi as an unnatural alliance.
2. News of conflict between multiple seats
One of the reasons for Mahavikas Aghadi’s weakness is the infighting in many seats. For example, Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate is contesting from Solapur South seat. The seat has been a Congress stronghold. Former Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde is the leader here.
During the polls, Sushil Kumar Shinde left Uddhav’s candidate and backed an independent. Recently, Sanjay Raut expressed concern over Sangli model games being played on many seats.
In fact, in the Lok Sabha elections, senior Congress leaders walked away from the alliance candidate in favor of independent MP Vishal Patil for the Sangli seat. With this, the Shiv Sena (Uddhav) candidate reached the third position.
3. CM does not make the final decision
When Mahavikas Aghadi was formed in 2019, Uddhav Thackeray was the face of the alliance. When the government collapsed, Thackeray also tried to gain sympathy. Mahavikas Aghadi also benefited from this in the Lok Sabha elections, but the tone of the Congress changed thereafter.
Congress is in a bind over the chief minister’s issue. The party is not declaring Uddhav Thackeray as prime minister, saying it will take a decision after the elections. Sharad Pawar also joined the Congress.
Due to the tug-of-war on the CM side, cracks appeared in many places within the alliance. For example, in seats where the Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Congress have a strong position.
4. Weak congressional leadership
The Congress party represents the MVA in the entire state of Maharashtra for the top spot of 102 seats, but the party has neither any face nor equation for the entire state of Maharashtra. State President Nana Patole remains confined to Vidarbha. The Deshmukhs also cannot leave Latour. Even in Mumbai, the party has no popular face.
In the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress successfully addressed Dalit and constitutional issues in Vidarbha, but this time the party did not push these issues hard here.
However, Congress’s commitment to farmers is considered a game changer. Congress made many big promises to cotton and onion growers ahead of the elections.
What are the Maharashtra polls?
Most agencies releasing Maharashtra exit polls gave majority votes to the NDA alliance. In the People’s Pulse exit polls, the NDA was expected to get 175 to 195 seats, the Indian Alliance 85 to 112 seats and other parties 7 to 12 seats.
Mark has expressed the possibility of a close fight. According to the polls, the NDA is likely to get 137-157 seats, India is likely to get 126-146 seats and other countries are likely to get 2-8 seats.
In the MATRIZE exit polls, the NDA is expected to get 150 to 170 seats and the Indian Alliance is expected to get 110 to 130 seats. At the same time, 8 to 10 seats can also be given to others. According to the exit polls by Chanakya Strategies, the NDA is likely to get 152 to 160 seats, the Indian Alliance is likely to get 130 to 138 seats and the others are likely to get 6 to 8 seats.
