Recently, elections were held in Haryana and the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. In Haryana, the Congress Party did not participate in the elections with the constituent parties of the Indian Group such as the Aam Aadmi Party and the Samajwadi Party (SP). The party participated in the elections alone. Congress was defeated in Haryana battle. In Jammu and Kashmir, the Congress party joined forces with the National Conference to contest the elections. The National Assembly became the largest party and the Alliance received an absolute majority.
The National Conference has also boosted its MLA base by inducting independents and has put the Congress party in the dock for its poor performance in Jammu region. The situation has grown to the point where the Congress has not even joined the cabinet of the Omar Abdullah government in Jammu and Kashmir and is now even talking of supporting it from outside.
Following the recent experience in Jammu and Kashmir, now the elections in Jharkhand and Maharashtra have become a real test for the Congress party and the opposition Indian bloc. The elections in Jharkhand and Maharashtra are being called the real test of the Indian block and there are many reasons behind it. In Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir, there is no alliance but direct fighting between the parties.
In Haryana, where the INLD and JJP have their own alliance, the fight for most seats remains between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress. Likewise, the sentiment in Jammu and Kashmir also appears to be one-sided. The BJP is dominant in the Jammu region, while the Congress is dominant in the Valley. How will the Jharkhand and Maharashtra elections be the real test? This can be understood from four points.
1- Alliance’s first battle after Lok Sabha elections
For the first time since the Lok Sabha elections, it will not be a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress, but between the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the opposition Indian Bloc. The BJP-led alliance in Maharashtra includes the Shiv Sena led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar-led the nationalist Congress Party. Meanwhile, Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar’s parties are in alliance with the Congress.
While the Shiv Sena of the Sindhi Party dominates the NDA in Maharashtra, the Indian bloc in Jharkhand is led by the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM), which includes state Major parties, RJD and Left parties. The Indian block will face the challenge of maintaining its winning momentum ahead of the Delhi and Bihar elections, the first major electoral battle after the Lok Sabha polls.
2- Both states are important to national politics
Both Jharkhand and Maharashtra are important states in national politics. The BJP managed to save the Haryana government and now if the results in Jharkhand also go in favor of the NDA, it will be a blow to the Indian state ahead of the Bihar elections. This may adversely affect the morale of opposition alliance leaders and workers in Bihar and other states in the Hindi belt. Meanwhile, Maharashtra is the second largest state after UP in terms of Lok Sabha seats. National outcomes are also considered important from a national political perspective.
Also read: BJP shows strength in Haryana! Efforts are underway to send a message of strength to Maharashtra-Jharkhand
3- Opposition’s rhetoric on BJP-Modi in jeopardy
In the recent Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 240 seats and failed to secure a majority. Although the NDA broke through the majority, the number of seats was reduced to 293 compared with the last election. Since then, leaders of the opposition India Bloc have claimed that the BJP’s image is declining and the magic on Prime Minister Modi’s face is fading. After the Haryana election results, this narrative will collapse if the NDA succeeds in forming the government in the Jharkhand and Maharashtra elections as well.
Also read: How much has the electoral scene in Maharashtra and Jharkhand changed in five years? Whose camp is stronger – 10 things to know
4- Must prove election performance was no fluke
India Block performed well in both Jharkhand and Maharashtra. Out of the 14 Lok Sabha seats in Jharkhand, candidates from the Indian Group (Congress and JMM) won 5 seats. Meanwhile, in Maharashtra, out of 48 Lok Sabha seats, India Group candidates won 29 seats and independent candidates won one seat. The Indian bloc must prove in the elections in these two states that the alliance’s performance in the Lok Sabha elections was no fluke.
