The India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts that the La Nina event is expected to become active during September. This event, occurring at the end of the monsoon season, could potentially serve as a warning for extreme winter conditions. Typically, temperatures drop significantly during La Nina winters, often accompanied by increased rainfall.
This year it will be very cold
According to the Meteorological Department, La Nina conditions will now develop only in the last week of the monsoon or at its end. That is, the monsoon remained ineffective due to La Nina, but if La Nina conditions develop just before the beginning of winter, then there will be severe cold from mid-December to January. The Meteorological Department estimates that there is a 66 percent chance of La Nina developing during September to November. There are more than 75 percent chances of it remaining in the Northern Hemisphere during winter from November to January 2025.
At present, the surface temperature in the western Pacific Ocean is above average, while in the eastern Pacific Ocean it remains close to or below average. Since the difference between the temperatures of both ends is close to zero, ENSO neutral conditions prevail. According to IMD, there has been a delay in the development of La-Nina conditions. Usually the monsoon departs from the country by October 15. In such a situation, it is unlikely to affect the southwest monsoon. Now it can develop between September and November. The north-east monsoon arrives in South India from the end of October, La-Nina may affect it.
IMD gave information
La Niña, which translates to ‘little girl’ in Spanish, is the opposite of El Niño and is responsible for a completely opposite climate behaviour. During a La Niña event a strong easterly current drives ocean water westward, causing the ocean surface to cool, particularly in the equatorial Pacific. The phenomenon is the exact opposite of El Niño, which means ‘little boy’ in Spanish, and produces warm ocean conditions when the trade winds weaken, causing warm water to move eastward toward the west coast of the Americas.
Both La Nina and El Nino are oceanic and atmospheric phenomena that usually begin between April and June and gain momentum by October and February. Although these climate events usually last for 9-12 months, they can sometimes continue for up to two years. Under normal conditions, trade winds blow westward along the equator, carrying warm water from South America towards Asia. The displacement of warm water leads to the rise of cold water from the depths of the ocean, maintaining equilibrium.
However, when these regular conditions are disrupted by El Niño or La Niña, significant changes in global climate occur. While El Niño leads to warmer air temperatures in the Pacific and, as a result, warmer global temperatures, La Niña does the opposite by cooling the ocean surface and the atmosphere above it.
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