Akhilesh Yadav, Rahul Gandhi
Congress has withdrawn by-elections to nine assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh. Congress explicitly refused to participate in the by-elections. The SP left two seats in UP namely Ghaziabad and Khel seats to the Congress. Considering the equation in these two seats and the low possibility of winning, the Congress decided not to conduct the by-elections but now the Congress wants to show that it is more powerful than the SP in Maharashtra through this by-elections Big heart. In this way, Congress has adopted a very well-thought-out strategy.
Tensions arose between the two after the SP fielded candidates in seven seats without gaining the confidence of Congress. In this case, the Congress party has made it clear that it will not participate in the by-election but will support the SP. The SP will contest all nine seats in the by-elections and the Congress will give its full support. The Congress had demanded five seats in the Uttar Pradesh by-elections, but the Samajwadi Party was giving only Kher and Ghaziabad assembly seats.
Khair-Ghaziabad Seat Equation
Ghaziabad and Kher seats are not considered more suitable for the Congress. The Congress has not won this seat for 44 years and the Ghaziabad account has not been opened for 22 years. The SP does not have any significant support base in either seat. Well, the SP cannot even open an account in this seat and it has won only one by-election in Ghaziabad. The BJP has won these two seats three times in a row since 2017. This is why Congress announced its support for two by-election seats for the Socialist Party.
What seats are needed in Congress?
The Congress party claimed to contest Majhivan, Mirapur and Phulpur seats and Khel and Ghaziabad seats in the Northern Alliance by-elections. These five seats are occupied by the BJP and its allies. The Congress’ strategy is to make Muslim voters and voters from extremely backward classes play a decisive role in many seats held by the opposition. In this regard, its efforts were concentrated on Manjhwa, Phulpur and Meerapur seats, but the SP retained these three seats and handed tough seats like Khair and Ghaziabad to the Congress party.
What is Congress’s strategy?
As Fine Gael failed to fulfill the wishes of Parliament, the party decided to abandon the Socialist Party in favor of the by-elections. On this pretext, the Congress formulated a strategy to deal with the SP in the Maharashtra elections. Congress has informed the Socialist Party’s top leadership that it will not contest the Fine Gael by-election. In return, the SP should either not contest the Maharashtra elections or, even if it does, should contest only one or two seats out of a very small number of seats. SP should support Congress in Maharashtra. In this way, Congress made two proposals to the SP, but the SP has not yet formally responded.
Political Chemistry of SP Congress
The Congress and the Samajwadi Party had fought side by side in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in the Thiel Hindu League. The political chemistry of the SP-Congress proved a hit in the Lok Sabha elections. The political stance of SP and Congress is the same as that of UP. The SP’s political base relies on the Muslim vote bank. In this case, the SP does not want to give too much political space to the UP Congress as its strength may become a cause of tension for the SP. Likewise, the SP’s political strength in Maharashtra may become a source of tension for the Congress in the future.
What is the need of SP in Maharashtra?
The Congress is unlikely to win two seats in Fine Gael by-elections. The SP demanded 12 seats for the Indian Alliance in Maharashtra. The SP is focusing only on those seats where Muslim voters are decisive. The SP has also announced candidates for five Muslim-dominated seats, among which the Congress is gearing up to contest the Bhiwandi West seat.
“The alliance is here to stay.”
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav has repeatedly said the same thing that Samajwadi Party and Congress are together. The Indian league is the same as before. The Indian Alliance will contest with the PDA but announced the list of candidates for the by-election without keeping it secret from Congress. In this case, he now left the responsibility of maintaining the union to Congress. Akhilesh didn’t want people to say he was trying to undermine the alliance. Akhilesh Yadav very politely said that the alliance will continue but the Congress is very understanding. That is why, in order to give a befitting reply to the Samajwadi Party, the Congress party has put a condition to Maharashtra that it withdraws from the by-elections.
In the Uttar Pradesh Lok Sabha elections, the Congress and Samajwadi Party formed an alliance. From an opposition perspective, the Congress is the first choice of Dalits and Muslims. In the seats where the Congress faced off against the BJP, the BJP was completely eliminated. In a bid to defeat the BJP, the vote bank of BJP president Mayawati has also shifted towards the Congress. Jatav voters are also included. Statistics show that if a Dalit voter has to choose between the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, the Congress is likely to be his first choice.
Congressional Common Vote Bank-SP
Akhilesh Yadav is aware of this mentality of Muslim and Dalit societies. That is why they are not prepared to take responsibility for destroying the alliance. They also know that the Congress and the Samajwadi Party share a common vote bank, so the gain for one and the loss for the other is certain, if not today or tomorrow. While Akhilesh Yadav’s focus is on the 2027 UP Assembly elections, the Congress is equally focused on it. Akhilesh is devising strategies to keep Muslims and Dalits with him on the pretext of maintaining an alliance with the Congress, but the Congress has now advanced its strategy to defeat the SP with the same strategy.
