The Bangladeshi movement that started on reservation in jobs came to a halt after the coup. The crowd of protesters reached PM House in Dhaka and started looting. This is being compared to the political earthquake that occurred in Colombo, Sri Lanka two years ago. But this is not the only thing that is similar. In the last three to four years, many neighboring countries of India were seen turning into fundamentalist Islamic countries. In a way, India’s situation may be like Israel’s. This will also affect the alliance of South Asian countries.
At present, apart from Bangladesh, the manner in which power has changed in Pakistan, Afghanistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Maldives has increased the fear that most of India’s neighbors will either become fundamentalists or have anti-India sentiments.
What is our geographical situation?
India shares its land borders with seven countries – Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, China, Nepal, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Maldives and Sri Lanka are countries with water borders. Now, except Bhutan, all the other countries are on the side of fundamentalism, who seem angry with Hindu majority India on Kashmir or any other issue. There is no insistence on religion in China, but India has a border dispute with it.
Direct impact of instability in Dhaka
Talking about Sri Lanka, there is an anti-India atmosphere there after the fall of Sheikh Hasina government. This environment was there earlier too, when there was talk of boycotting Indian products. Actually, Hasina government had good relations with India. Opponents claimed that India had influenced the elections to bring Hasina government back to power. There was also an anti-Hindu atmosphere in Bangladesh, which is now clearly visible.
China’s angle also comes into this. Recently there was talk of Teesta agreement between India and Bangladesh. China was also interested in it. Hasina had visited both the countries one after the other a month ago and talked about this matter. Now Hasina’s departure may be beneficial for China, but it may bring problems for India.
Maldives’ stance also appears to be anti-India
Ever since Mohammed Muizzu was elected President of Maldives, tension in relations increased. As soon as he arrived, he started the India Out campaign, under which Indian soldiers were removed from the country. Muizzu remained pro-China. Since the relations between India and China are not that good, the reason for its uprooting from India is understandable.
According to the US Treasury Department, the city of Addu in Maldives has become a stronghold of Islamic extremists. It supports ISIS-K (in Afghanistan). Recently, Islamic State is believed to have a hand in the increasing terrorist activities on the Indian borders. All these links form a picture.
Impact of China’s loan on Colombo
There was political instability in Sri Lanka about two years ago, due to which President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had to flee the country. This country, which lives in poverty, is deeply in debt to China. In return, China is capturing those ports which are close to India, or from where it is easy to keep an eye on India. This is also a dangerous situation in itself.
Nepal even claimed Lord Ram
The condition of Nepal is worse. There has been political instability here since the fall of Rajshahi in 2008. PM has changed here many times in 16 years. Only last month, KP Sharma Oli took power. During Oli’s previous tenure, relations between the two countries started deteriorating. Nepal released such maps which included many parts of India.
In 2020, Oli also claimed that India has snatched away Lord Ram, whereas the real Ayodhya is in Nepal. However, later the Foreign Ministry there also gave clarification on this. The bitterness towards India also started appearing in this country which is continuously taking loans from China. All these things can prove to be a challenge.
extremist rule in afghanistan
Exactly three years ago, Taliban came to power in Afghanistan. This is an Islamic fundamentalist organization, the impact of whose presence was not limited to that country only, but also affected India. Before his arrival, India and Afghanistan had good relations during the government of Ashraf Ghani. Now the relations between the two countries have almost ended. Most of the countries did not even recognize Taliban, of which India is also one.
terrorism increasing from pakistan
The anti-India atmosphere is continuously increasing in Pakistan, which is facing economic crisis. During the time of Imran Khan, relations between the two countries seemed to be improving a bit, but after Khan was ousted from power after the no-confidence motion, Shahbaz Sharif became the PM, since then the situation has remained the same. On this Monday, Yaum-e-Istehsal (persecution) day was celebrated there. Let us tell you that four years ago on August 5, the special status of Kashmir was removed. Pakistan celebrates Persecution Day in protest against this. These things give a glimpse of Pakistan’s fanaticism and anti-India attitude.
Situation is not good even in Myanmar
The issue of Rohingya refugees has been going on there since 2017, but now a situation of civil war seems to be developing there. Rebel forces have captured most of Myanmar’s northern region. In fact, three years ago the Myanmar Army had overthrown the elected government and captured power. After this, many rebel groups were formed which are against the army, but they also want to capture power and not democracy.
Due to this mutual conflict, displacement is going on. A large number of people are also crossing the border and coming to India. Even India had to increase vigil on its borders with Myanmar. It is even believed that the Kuki and Meitei conflict in Manipur is the result of infiltrators from Myanmar.
In comparison, this situation is like Israel. This Jewish country is surrounded by 13 Muslim countries, most of which were its staunch opponents. The main ones among them are Egypt, Iraq, Algeria, Kuwait, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Sudan and Libya. He has directly attacked Israel many times. At present, these countries are also supporting Hamas in the war between Hamas and Israel.
What will be the impact on SAARC?
This instability around India will impact SAARC. SAARC is a grouping of South Asian countries which includes 8 countries – Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. At present, India is the only economically and politically stable group in the group formed with the aim of strengthening South Asia. Bhutan is a stable but small country. In such a situation, SAARC appears to be a formally formed organization, especially in the current circumstances.
continuously postponed meeting
The last meeting of SAARC was held in Kathmandu exactly 10 years ago, whereas this summit was supposed to be held every two years. There was talk of a summit in Islamabad in the year 2022, but after PM Narendra Modi boycotted the conference in anger against the Uri terror attack, all the other countries also withdrew their names.
Recently, Bangladesh’s interim PM Mohammad Yunus talked about reviving SAARC, but considering the continuous instability in the neighboring countries, it seems that even in the coming days, SAARC will not be able to emerge as a big grouping. Whereas earlier many big decisions have been its part.