SP’s bike goes full speed in Cajal.
The fate of the candidates contesting by-elections to nine assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh has been sealed in the EVM. Turnout was down 13% from the last election, making the political math even more complicated. Political parties may claim victory, but no one is entirely sure. Even after the BJP made waves in the 2022 elections, the Samajwadi Party managed to win 4 seats and 6 seats in 2024. In a by-election held five months later, the Socialist Party’s cycle is running full steam ahead in the Kahal seat, but appears to have slowed down in the predominantly Muslim seat.
Among the nine seats in Uttar Pradesh where by-elections have been held, there are Sisamau, Khair, Kundarki, Meerapur, Karhal, Ghaziabad, Katehari, Phulpur and Majhwan seats. In 2022, the Samajwadi Party won 4 seats, the Bharatiya Janata Party won 3 seats, the League won 1 seat and the Nishad Party won 1 seat. In the by-election, the PPP contested eight seats while the RLD fielded a candidate for one seat. The SP and BSP have tried their luck in all nine seats, while Asaduddin Owaisi and Chandrashekhar Azad have also fielded their candidates. Even after this, there was a direct contest between the SP and the BJP alliance.
SP’s political equation appears to be in chaos
The SP managed to win Yadav and Muslim-dominated seats in the 2022 elections. The SP also managed to win 37 seats in the Lok Sabha elections through the PDA formula. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav had bet on this package in the by-elections, but the SP’s political equation appears to have been disrupted by the BSP’s silence and the BJP’s return to a radical Hindutva agenda. Therefore, the SP is in danger of losing many seats.
Signs of this were clear in the exit polls on the by-election. Exit polls predicted 2-7 and 3-6. The SP seems to be getting 2 or 3 seats, while the BJP alliance is expected to get 6 or 7 seats. If the exit polls predict a result of 23, then it is clear that the BJP will succeed in defeating the Samajwadi Party in the seats it won.
Yadav voters mobilized in support of Samajwadi Party
The Karhal assembly seat is believed to be Yadav-dominated and has been the SP’s traditional seat. As Akhilesh Yadav resigned and by-elections were held, Tej Pratap Yadav tried his luck from here. BJP’s Anujesh Yadav versus Tej Pratap, Samajwadi Party MP Dharmendra Yadav brother-in-law. 54.1% of the voting took place in Cajal.
A large number of voters from Yadav community came out of their homes and reached the polling stations and it is believed that they were mobilized in support of the SP. Therefore, all exit polls predicted SP victory in Karhal seat. The SP lost this seat only once and later absorbed the winning MLA. That’s why people want things to go in favor of SP.
Putting the brakes on Muslim-dominated seats?
RLD won the Meerapur assembly seat in 2022 with the support of SP but is contesting the by-election with the support of the BJP. The competition between Mithlesh Pal from RLD and Sumbul Rana from SP seems to be narrowing down, while Shah Nazar from BSP is fighting for the third and fourth spots between ASP and AIMIM. In villages where OBC and Jat votes are dominant, there is a trend in favor of RLG candidates.
In Muslim-dominated villages Kakrauli, Sikri, Meerapur, Jatwada, Jauli, Muslim voters were divided into SP, BSP and ASP in the morning. The Muslim community was apparently mobilized in support of the Socialist Party after the stone-throwing incident in Khakrauli, but the severity of the government slowed down their vote. This will definitely hinder the SP’s speed. SP does not seem to be successful in creating Dalit-Muslim model here.
Does the dispersion of votes ruin the SP’s math?
The Kundarki seat has 62% Muslim voters and the SP has not lost in this seat since 2007. The BJP and the Samajwadi Party were in direct competition for the Kundalki seat, but the fragmentation of Muslim votes spoiled the Samajwadi Party’s calculations. Bharatiya Janata Party candidate Ramveer Singh appears to have succeeded in breaking into the Samajwadi Party’s traditional vote bank. While voters in Muslim areas supported the BJP, in many places the Muslim community was also divided between BSP, AIMIM and AAP candidates. The seat is believed to be disappearing from the Samajwadi Party’s accounts as Samajwadi Party candidate Haji Rizwan seeks re-election.
The SP has held the West Samau parliamentary seat for two decades. The Muslim-dominated seat has become vacant due to the conviction of former Socialist MP Irfan Solanki, and the party has nominated his wife Naseem Solanki as its candidate. The BJP nominated Suresh Awasti as its candidate, but he lost in the last three elections. Protests against police roadblocks have been taking place in West Samau since morning. Angry people sparked riots as roadblocks were set up in the Gvartoli area, blocking the road leading to the tomb, accusing police of preventing voters from casting their ballots. Similar cases have appeared in many places, and SP’s road has become difficult as a result.
PDA plan weakened in by-election?
Twelve candidates are trying their luck in the Pulpur parliamentary by-election, but the main contest is between the PPP and the Socialist Party. In some areas the Socialists appear to be dominant, while in others the People’s Party is gaining momentum. The outcome will depend on who Dalit voters vote for. The SP has fielded a Muslim candidate in this seat, but the PDA package for 2024 does not appear to be unified. The votes of the Maurya and Dalit communities, which emerged with the Samajwadi Party, could not be mobilized in the by-elections, while the BJP strategically strengthened its fragmented balance.
Fake voting was reported in many places in Cajal. There are a lot of complaints about blocking Muslim voters. The police took away many of the stall workers and destroyed their bags. Akhilesh Yadav said the BJP wants to stay in the government by suppressing democracy and the constitution, while in democracies the government runs on public opinion. The BJP is an expert at undermining free and fair elections. Likewise, such incidents on the bench are against the democratic process. The BJP is trying to win elections by killing democracy with pistols. He claimed that the government was serving a particular political party. In Katehari seat, lockdown and strict administration in Muslim-dominated areas may hamper SP’s pace of development.
