When Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, who was caught in a liquor scam case, was released on bail, it was believed that he would focus on the elections in his home state of Haryana. But Kejriwal, who was behind bars but did not resign from his post, surprised everyone by announcing his resignation as chief minister two days after coming out as gay. Currently, there is a debate within the Aam Aadmi Party over the choice of the new chief minister of Delhi. While announcing his resignation, Kejriwal had said that he would not serve as the chief minister until he gets a new mandate, but political experts believe that even after winning the elections early next year, it will not be a surprise if Kejriwal is no longer the chief minister.
It is noteworthy that after 49 days in power in 2013, the Aam Aadmi Party continued to rule in Delhi with Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal if about a year is excluded. Kejriwal’s resignation move is related to the strategy of reducing the anti-incumbency factor to zero. The Aam Aadmi Party and Kejriwal will get credit for the job done in Delhi, but now Delhi will have a new face as the Chief Minister. The BJP played the tactic of changing the chief ministers before the elections in many states and benefited from it in many places.
However, political experts also see the national dream behind Kejriwal’s resignation. According to him, the resignation could be in view of the 2029 general elections rather than the 2025 Delhi. In the recently held Lok Sabha elections, Kejriwal’s supporters have been calling him the prime ministerial candidate. Kejriwal’s national dream is not hidden from anyone. Even today, when people talk about prime ministerial candidates other than Modi and Rahul, only Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s name is mentioned after Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee.
In the India Today Voter National Sentiment Survey conducted in August, Kejriwal ranked second in the list of India’s best chief ministers, just behind UP CM Yogi Adityanath. But in national politics too, in different opinion polls before the Lok Sabha election results, Arvind Kejriwal was said to be the favorite to take over the post of Prime Minister after Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. In the CSDS Public Policy Survey, a maximum of 11% of people named Kejriwal as a national-level challenger after PM Modi and Rahul Gandhi. From guarantees to direct cash benefits and free electricity for women, many of Kejriwal’s experiments have become key to the election campaigns of political parties like the BJP and the Congress.
That is why political experts are seeing Kejriwal’s resignation as an opportunity in the midst of disaster in relation to his national dream. Kejriwal may be the Chief Minister of Delhi but the threat of the Chief Minister of Delhi is not as big as the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh-Bihar-Madhya Pradesh or any other big state. In this case, it will be difficult for him to be a replacement for Narendra Modi or Rahul Gandhi while being the Chief Minister of Delhi. But if he gets any other leader as the Chief Minister of Delhi, then he will not be called the Chief Minister of Delhi but only the Chairman of the party that is in power in two states, Delhi and Punjab. In this case, his position will be considered much higher than Chief Ministers like Nitish, Mamata or former Chief Ministers like Akhilsh-Mayawati in terms of contesting with Modi and Rahul.
Leaving aside national parties like the BJP-Congress, the chief minister of Delhi or any other state does not have much acceptance in other states. Kejriwal can resign as the chief minister of Delhi and continue his mission to become a national leader. As the Aam Aadmi Party president, it will be relatively easier for him to connect with voters in other states. He can devote more time to his national dream, roaming and campaigning across the country; he will not have the compulsion to stay in Delhi and solve the problems of the people here. The opposition BJP or the Congress will not be able to corner him as they have done so far.
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Arvind Kejriwal’s strength in the opposition India bloc will also grow. In terms of seats, Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP) and Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress may be ahead of the Aam Aadmi Party in parliament, but the influence of these parties is limited to one state. Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party is the only party after the Congress in the opposition alliance, which has governments in two states and MLAs in parliaments in three states. Notably, the Aam Aadmi Party won five seats in the Gujarat elections.
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Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari said that till 2014, there was a strong third front in the country. After the Congress’s resurgence in the opposition, Kejriwal’s strategy could be to fill the vacuum of the third front, but the challenge is that his party is included in the Congress-led India bloc at the national level. Be it Delhi, Punjab or Goa-Gujarat, which were vote banks for the Congress, the Aam Aadmi Party has also witnessed the decline of the Congress. The second aspect is that while Kejriwal’s image may not have been damaged much in Delhi-Punjab, his image has been damaged in other states. The Congress is becoming increasingly powerful and after its image has been damaged, it will be challenging for Kejriwal to expand the party across the country.
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