Perhaps no one would have imagined that the Prime Minister, who had been in power for 15 years, would have to flee her country in this manner. On Monday, Sheikh Hasina first resigned from the post of Prime Minister and then also left Bangladesh. This is the first time in the history of Bangladesh that a Prime Minister had to leave the country after losing power.
This is also surprising because in the elections held in January this year, Sheikh Hasina’s party Awami League had won more than two-thirds of the seats. She was elected Prime Minister for the fourth consecutive time. But within seven months he had to flee his country.
The interim government will be sworn in in Bangladesh on Thursday. The head of this government will be Mohammad Yunus. Along with him, 15 more members will also take oath on Thursday. There will be elections again in Bangladesh in the next few months.
At present, Sheikh Hasina is in India. It is being told that Sheikh Hasina may take refuge in some European country in a few days. Well, the kind of situation prevailing in Bangladesh is likely to affect India also. Till now, Bangladesh was the only country among the neighboring countries of India, where there was not only political stability, but relations with India were also better.
How big a blow for India?
Sheikh Hasina’s loss of power in Bangladesh is a big blow for India. Bangladesh was formed with the help of India and since then relations were excellent. Last year, India had invited Bangladesh as a special guest in the G20 summit. But now Sheikh Hasina not being in power may be difficult for India.
At present there are only two big faces in Bangladesh politics. Sheikh Hasina of Awami League and Khaleda Zia of Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). For three and a half decades, the power of Bangladesh has been sometimes with Khaleda Zia and sometimes with Sheikh Hasina.
But from India’s point of view, Sheikh Hasina being in power in Bangladesh is more beneficial. Sheikh Hasina has been closer to India.
Last month Sheikh Hasina had gone on a tour to China, but left the tour midway and returned. Sheikh Hasina had made an important announcement as soon as she returned. She said that both India and China are interested in the Teesta project, but she wants India to complete it.
On the other hand, Khaleda Zia’s BNP is considered more inclined towards Islamic fundamentalism. BNP is closer to Pakistan than India. And China benefits from this, because Pakistan is its good friend.
Also read: Why is Bangladesh’s Mohammad Yunus being called America’s Man? What is their stance regarding India?
What is at stake for India?
Relations between India and Bangladesh have become stronger since Sheikh Hasina became Prime Minister in 2009. During Sheikh Hasina’s government, not only anti-India terrorist groups were eliminated in Bangladesh, but economic relations also improved during this period.
There is tremendous trade between India and Bangladesh. The good thing is that Bangladesh is among those countries with which India benefits. Because India bought less things from there, but sold more.
In 2023-24, India had imported goods worth Rs 15,268 crore to Bangladesh. Whereas, Rs 91,614 crore was exported to Bangladesh. That is, last year there was a trade of more than Rs 1.06 lakh crore between India and Bangladesh.
In the two months of April and May in 2024-25 alone, trade worth more than Rs 17 thousand crore has been done between the two countries.
Now the current situation in Bangladesh is likely to impact business. The border has also been closed for two days and until the situation improves, there is no hope of it opening again. Obviously this will affect India’s exports.
Also read: Once upon a time friendship, now known enmity… The story of enmity between 2 Begums in Bangladesh and bloody politics on the streets of Dhaka.
What else?
Since 2016, India has helped Bangladesh a lot in developing infrastructure. India has given a credit line of 8 billion dollars to Bangladesh. With its help, railways, roads and ports are being built there. In November last year, two projects – Akhaura-Agartala cross border rail link and Khulna-Mongla Port Rail Line – were inaugurated.
The Akhaura-Agartala link was the sixth cross border rail line between the two countries. This rail line was expected to increase tourism and business.
Not only this, India has also invested more than 120 million dollars in Bangladesh.
Apart from this, political and economic instability is also likely to impact Indian companies operating there. Until the situation becomes normal as before, the earnings of these companies may be affected.