Sheikh Hasina’s resignation from the post of PM of Bangladesh and her leaving the country reflects an important change in the geo-politics of South Asia. His government has been a reliable ally for India. She controlled anti-India fundamentalist elements and maintained a balance in relations with India and China. Let us know what impact Sheikh Hasina’s departure can have on India.
With Sheikh Hasina losing power in Bangladesh, the possibility of re-emergence of anti-India sentiments has increased. For example, pro-China groups like Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami may emerge, due to which there is a possibility of change in the foreign policy of Bangladesh, which may prove to be harmful for India.
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India’s troubles, security a big concern
The political turmoil in Bangladesh after the departure of Sheikh Hasina has created security concerns for India. Due to instability in the neighbourhood, India may have to face challenges related to border security. In contrast to Sheikh Hasina’s previous efforts to stop insurgent activities and maintain peace on the north-eastern borders, anti-India activities may increase.
The instability in Bangladesh could lead to increased influx of refugees from Bangladesh, creating difficulties for India in border security, especially in areas where security is already a serious concern.
There was a Congress government in India when Sheikh Hasina took charge of Bangladesh in 2009. For India, granting asylum to him and his family has been beneficial in maintaining its diplomatic interests.
However, after Narendra Modi became the Prime Minister of India, relations between the two countries have become stronger. Sheikh Hasina also visited India for the first time after starting her fourth term.
For example, Indrani Bagchi, CEO of Anant Aspen Center, says, “Hasina has been sensitive to India’s security concerns. In return, India has been a generous neighbor, which has helped Bangladesh’s development and also facilitated economic cooperation between the two countries.” And connectivity has been enhanced to reflect security dependability.”
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Impact on India-Bangladesh relations
Sheikh Hasina’s departure may disrupt the long-standing economic relations between India and Bangladesh. During his tenure, there has been substantial trade between the two countries, with significant cooperation in sectors such as energy, connectivity and infrastructure.
Hasina’s departure could lead to a change in diplomatic relations between India and Bangladesh. Under his leadership, India viewed Bangladesh as a strategic partner with common interests.
Now, his departure may re-energize the political void as they are trying to form an interim government and have even met the President for the same.
India’s headache at strategic level
With the departure of Sheikh Hasina, major changes can be seen in South Asia, especially the growing influence of China can get further strengthened, which is a big challenge for India. For example, China was keeping its eye on the Teesta Irrigation Project, but Sheikh Hasina changed her policies due to India’s offer of cooperation in it.
The location of the project is close to the Siliguri Corridor, which is a strategic headache for India. This corridor is known as Chicken’s Neck, which is the only way to connect the North East by road.
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China was trying its best to hijack this project, for which it was difficult to achieve it under Hasina’s leadership, but BNP and its allies can make it easy for it to achieve it.
Professor Asif Nazrul of Dhaka University says, “Sheikh Hasina has handled relations with India and China very wisely. India’s support was important for her to remain in power and China’s support for strengthening her economic situation.” This is the reason why there was pressure on her regarding the Teesta project, and this is the reason why she could not sign this project with India.
Asif Nazrul says that people question that Bangladesh is giving port and railway corridor to India, but what has been achieved from this? “People see such concessions as (a trick) for Hasina to remain in power with India’s support,” he said. He told that anti-India sentiments have been seen in the recent protests also due to these reasons.