Opposition leaders, including the Congress, termed the Lok Sabha election results as a moral victory. Discussions ranged from opposition to the Agniver Plan to farmers’ grievances; the opposition’s hopes of losing ground to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) among the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) due to the caste census were also put on hold. When the Haryana Assembly election results brought the opposition back to reality, they had been unable to live in this world of expectations for six months. After the Haryana election results, people started discussing how useful the BJP would be in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, as well as in states like Jharkhand and Maharashtra, which are deeply entangled in the web of caste politics?
The Haryana results are seen as indicating that the propaganda of OBC politics remains as effective for them at least in the state elections. This has come as a relief to the BJP, both in bypoll and election states. In Uttar Pradesh, from opposition parties such as the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress Party to NDA parties such as the Apna Dal (S) and the Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (Subhashpa), they have also been outspoken in calling for a caste census. By-elections will be held in 10 assembly seats in the state and the winning formula for the Lok Sabha elections will be tested.
Among the seats up for by-election in UP is also the Mirkipur assembly seat that fell vacant due to the resignation of Ayodhya MP Awadesh Prasad, which the BJP sees as an opportunity to avenge its defeat in the Lok Sabha election. SP’s strategy is to advance Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA (Backward, Dalit and Minority) model. Encouraged by the Haryana election results, the BJP will focus on majoritarian politics.
The strategy of the BJP, which won fewer seats than the Samajwadi Party in the Lok Sabha elections, will be to successfully keep the lotus blooming for the third consecutive time through non-Jat politics and Jat-dominated OBC politics. Likewise, in the Uttar Pradesh by-elections, traditional voters like non-Yadav OBCs, non-Jatav Dalits, Rajputs and Brahmins and Vaishyas should be back on the winning track.
Talking about Jharkhand, the political basis of Hemant Soren’s Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) party is tribal politics. Even before the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP was actively working on changing the demography of the tribal belt, increasing the population of Bengali infiltrators and tribal identity. Be it all these talking points or the inclusion of Sita Soren and Champai Soren in the party, is the BJP’s activity in tribal politics a sign of an all-out focus or does the strategy point to something else?
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Senior journalist Omprakash Ashk said the BJP’s strategy is to “focus somewhere and aim elsewhere”. The party understands that the politics of Jharkhand cannot ignore the tribal society, but the party cannot rely solely on the tribal society. The entire focus of the BJP is on the non-tribal vote bank and it is working quietly. In Haryana, too, the BJP has openly taken the path of non-Jat politics but has not completely ignored this segment. With the mobilization of non-tribal votes, if the BJP can get even 10-12% among the tribal votes, then it will be the “icing on the cake” and its chances of winning may increase.
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Talking about Bihar, there seems to be no difficulty on caste census after coming together with Nitish Kumar, but for the BJP, rejecting the Bihar government’s move to expand reservation Decisions can become a hassle. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) has launched an attack on the Janata Dal-JDU over its demand to add reservations in Bihar to the Ninth Schedule in Tamil Nadu. To counter this challenge, the BJP is focusing on non-Yadav OBCs and the party is also pinning its hopes on Nitish’s Sita politics and women’s vote bank.
Also read: First Madhya Pradesh-Chhattisgarh, now Haryana… Will the BJP get the benefit of ‘freebies’ in Maharashtra and Jharkhand too?
In an election year in Maharashtra, the Maratha reservation movement has become a thorn in the side of both the ruling and opposition camps. If Manoj Jarange Patil’s demands are accepted, then the OBC is in danger of collapsing, if not, then the anti-Mala image is in danger of being disintegrated. The Maratha community is said to make up about 33% of the population, which is why no party wants to risk angering them. In Haryana, non-Jat politics proved suitable for the BJP and in Maharashtra, the party could also take the path of non-Maratha politics.
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If we look at the Haryana elections, the BJP targeted 51% of the electorate but did not give the opposition victory in its strong vote bank. The same strategy is visible in Jharkhand. Devendra Fadnavis also said on the stage of India Today Conclave in Mumbai that we have informed this to Manoj Jarange Patil that if he (Maha Vikas Aghadi) accepts his demand and is ready to issue OBC certificate, then only those who are in the Lok Sabha in the elections will be supported did it. Fadnavis’s statement is also seen as an indication that the BJP is no longer dwelling only on Maratha politics but has decided to focus on non-Maratha politics.
