Hemant Soren, Babu Lal Marandi, Sudesh Mahato
Polling is underway for 43 seats in the first phase of the Jharkhand assembly elections, but not only is there a change of power in every election, but the trend of more than half of the MLAs losing the election is creating political tension for CM Hemant Soren and the BJP. Since the formation of Jharkhand, four assembly elections have been held and the fifth is now underway. Judging from the political trends from 2005 to 2019 elections, it is already difficult for current members to win for the second time.
Jharkhand was formed in 2000 and politics here have become complicated since then. For 24 years, no party has achieved a majority, and no government has been able to repeat it. The chief minister, who sits on the throne of power, finds it difficult to retain his seat. Leaders who become chief ministers have to face failure. Since the formation of Jharkhand, in the four assembly elections held so far, there has been a trend of more than 50% of provincial councilors losing. If this election continues the same pattern, the political game of power will change.
45 MLAs lost in 2019 elections
In the 2019 elections, out of the 81 assembly seats in Jharkhand, only 36 MLAs returned to the assembly after winning, while 45 MLAs had to face defeat. In this way, 56% of sitting members faced defeat, and 44% successfully entered the parliament again. 12 out of 37 BJP MLAs, 13 out of 19 JMM MLAs, 1 out of 8 JVM MLAs, 3 out of 6 Congress MLAs and 7 others switched sides and won. In this way, the sitting MLAs of the BJP had to face their biggest defeat in the last elections.
55 MLAs lost in 2014 elections
In the 2014 Jharkhand Assembly elections, only 26 out of 81 sitting members were able to retain their seats. In this way, 55 provincial councilors had to face defeat. In elections held ten years ago, 68% of MLAs failed and 32% succeeded. Thus, only 10 of the 18 MLAs of the BJP, only 7 of the 18 MLAs of the JMM, only 3 of the 5 MLAs of the AJSU and one other MLA managed to retain their seats. Eight MLAs of the BJP, 11 MLAs of the JMM and all five MLAs of the RJD faced defeat.
Most MLAs lost in 2009
In the 2009 assembly elections, Jharkhand had a total of 81 MPs, of which only 20 managed to retain their seats and 61 sitting MPs were defeated miserably. In this way, 75% of MLAs cannot retain their seats and 25% of MLAs can win. 5 out of 17 JMM, 4 out of 30 BJP, 2 out of 9 Congress, 1 out of 7 RJD, 2 out of 2 AJSU, 1 out of 1 MLA and 1 MLA from other parties managed to retain their seats. The BJP suffered its biggest blow in 2009. The record for the highest number of failed MPs in the history of Jharkhand was in the 2009 elections.
50 MLAs lost in 2005 elections
Jharkhand was separated from Bihar in 2000, but held its first elections in 2005. In this election, 50 sitting members were defeated and only 31 members managed to retain their seats. Thus, in 2005, 62% of current members had to face defeat, while only 38% successfully entered parliament. In 2005, only 13 out of 32 BJP MLAs, only 6 out of 12 JMM MLAs, only 4 out of 11 Congress MLAs, only 3 out of 8 JDU MLAs and only 2 out of 9 RJD MLAs managed to win. Apart from this, one AJSU MLA and one independent MLA were able to retain their seats.
Trend of failure in provincial council elections
In a continuing political trend in Jharkhand politics, more than half of the sitting MLAs have lost elections, exacerbating tensions between political parties as well as Chief Minister Hemant Soren. If we analyze the defeat of sitting MLAs in the last four elections, both the ruling and opposition parties faced defeat. This points to an anti-incumbency wave targeting the government and current MLAs. Voters in Jharkhand express deep dissatisfaction with the government and the current MLAs, so as the government changes, so do the MLAs.
Invoice changing trends
The BJP has canceled the votes of four sitting legislators from the 2024 assembly elections. The BJP canceled the ticket of Simaria MLA Kishun Das and gave it to Ujjwal Das, canceled the ticket of Kanke MLA Samri Lal and gave it to Dr Jitu Charan Ram, canceled the ticket of Jamua MLA Kedar Hazra and designated him Candidate for Manju Devi. Candidate Tara Devi from Sindri replaced Indrajit Mahato.
Meanwhile, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha canceled the nomination of Littipara MP Dinesh William Marandi and appointed Hem Hemlal Murmu is the candidate. Apart from this, Hemant Soren also canceled the votes of those MLAs who left the JMM and joined the BJP or other parties during the hotly contested elections. Congress has canceled the vote of one of its MLAs. Congress canceled the votes of MLA Umashankar Akela from Balshi seat and named Arun Sahu as its candidate.
