This time the fight for power in Haryana assembly elections has become very interesting. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has been in power for the last 10 years, is facing an anti-incumbency wave this time. To break this wave, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will start his election campaign by holding a rally in Kurukshetra from today (14 September). BJP now has only 20 days, in which it will have to try to win over the voters and convince the angry voters. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rally in Kurukshetra will also mark the formal start of BJP’s election campaign in the state.
Chief Minister Naib Singh Saini is the BJP candidate from Kurukshetra’s Ladwa seat, who has also been an MP from Kurukshetra earlier. Modi’s rally is also important because the party needs to maintain a strong hold in the Kurukshetra region. But meanwhile, the big question that is arising is whether Modi will be able to bring the party to power for the third consecutive time in Haryana in the only 20 days left for the election campaign?
PM Narendra Modi is going to start the election campaign in Haryana with this rally. The election campaign in the state will end on October 3. In such a situation, Modi has got only 20 days to deal with the anti-incumbency wave of 10 years in Haryana. Apart from this, he also has to campaign in Jammu and Kashmir in the meantime, where assembly elections are being held for the first time after 10 years and after the removal of Article 370. In such a situation, the limited time of PM Modi, the constantly approaching date of voting and the increasing challenges in the state are raising big questions for the BJP.
BJP’s strategy
Prime Minister Narendra Modi is the main face of BJP’s election campaign. He has only 20 days in which he has to woo voters through rallies in different parts of the state. The party has full faith in PM Modi’s campaigning skills, especially to overcome the anti-incumbency wave in the state. Modi raises the issues of Congress’ corruption, development work, and national security loudly in his election campaigns. Under the same strategy in Haryana too, the party will make corruption and development an issue through the Prime Minister.
BJP leaders are also constantly raising anti-corruption issues in their election campaign. Especially the corruption of Congress. The party is making PM Modi’s face and his appeal its main weapon. Despite the state’s 10-year anti-incumbency, the party is relying on Modi’s popularity. That’s why the party is contesting in the state without any CM face.
In comparison to Congress, BJP is emphasizing on issues like better economic development, employment opportunities and security. Apart from this, BJP is also trying to take all sections along keeping in mind the caste equations. Also, senior BJP leaders can clarify the party’s position on farmers’ issues during the election campaign, so that the discontent caused by the movement can be reduced.
This time in Haryana, BJP is facing many big challenges to remain in power.
Impact of the farmers’ movement
The impact of the farmers’ movement can be seen significantly on the BJP’s electoral campaign in Haryana. In 2020-21, there were massive protests by farmers against the agricultural laws implemented by the central government, with Haryana and Punjab being the focal point. Farmers protested against these laws by staging long dharnas, and their demands eventually forced the government to withdraw these laws.
However, the confrontation between the government and the farmers during the agitation damaged the image of the BJP. Resentment towards the BJP can still be seen among the farmers of Haryana, especially the Jat community. This can have a direct impact on the party’s vote bank in rural areas, as agriculture is the backbone of the state’s economy. In the elections, the BJP will have to make an effective strategy to deal with this discontent so that it can win back the trust of the farmer community.
players protest
The players’ protest could have a profound impact on the BJP’s electoral campaign, especially in a state like Haryana, where sports and sportspersons play an important role in politics. The protests led by women wrestlers, which focused on allegations of sexual harassment and demands for justice, have dealt a blow to the BJP’s image in the state.
Players from Haryana, who represent the state at the national and international level, have been in the news for their protests against the government. The players’ agitation took the political debate in a different direction, where the government was accused of not paying attention. The protests became a symbol of discontent against the government. The BJP will have to take concrete steps with sensitivity to deal with the damage caused by these protests, so that it can make its election campaign a success without losing the support of the sports fraternity.
Strategy of opposition parties
Parties like Congress, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), and Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) are trying to form alliances against BJP in their own ways. If the effect of the unity of these opposition parties is seen on the ground, then the path to electoral victory for BJP may become more difficult. Congress, in particular, is focusing on Dalit and Jat vote banks, and has prepared a strategy to balance the caste equations within the state.
ethnic equation
Caste equations are of great importance in Haryana politics. A large part of the Jat community, which plays a major role in the state’s politics, is angry with the BJP. The party has to depend more on non-Jat voters. At the same time, forming alliances with other communities is also a big challenge for the party. This time BJP has a big responsibility to maintain caste balance and bring all sections together.
Influence of Dushyant Chautala and JJP
In 2019, BJP formed the government by forming an alliance with Jannayak Janata Party (JJP). But this time the alliance with JJP has broken, due to which BJP is in the electoral fray on its own. JJP has influence especially in the Jat community, and due to the breakup of this alliance, BJP may face the loss of Jat votes. Without JJP, BJP will have to attract Jat and other rural votes on its own, which will not be easy. The separation of JJP can create another problem for BJP.
BJP’s anti-incumbency factor
After 10 years of power, there is a big risk of anti-incumbency wave against BJP. Any party has to face anti-incumbency wave while in power, and BJP is not untouched by it. Despite development work, issues like unemployment, inflation and corruption allegations are being raised by opposition parties, which can increase the discontent of voters. Especially, in the Lok Sabha elections, BJP got only 5 out of 10 seats in Haryana, which is a warning sign for the party.
Decision to change Chief Minister
Just a few months before the elections in Haryana, BJP had decided to change the Chief Minister in the state. Manohar Lal Khattar was replaced by a new face Nayab Singh Saini. But will this decision prove helpful in reducing the discontent towards the government within the party and also among the public, because the decision to change the Chief Minister so close to the elections can affect the election results of the party.
Party’s performance in Lok Sabha elections
In Haryana, the BJP achieved great success in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, when it won 7 out of 10 seats in the state. But in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the party showed its performance even better, and it won 10 out of 10 seats. But in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the party was able to win only 5 seats. The party’s seats in the state were halved compared to the last election. Although this figure can be called satisfactory for the BJP, it was also a clear indication that the party is facing a tough challenge from the opposition. In assembly elections, local issues and caste equations have a greater impact, and this is why the BJP has to work harder in the state this time.
How was the performance in the last assembly elections
In the 2014 assembly elections in Haryana, BJP had won a big victory when it won 47 seats and formed the government with a clear majority. But the party’s performance in the 2019 assembly elections was not as impressive, and it got only 40 seats, which was less than the majority. After this, a government was formed by forming an alliance with JJP. This time it will be interesting to see how the party performs in the assembly elections.
BJP’s entire focus in Haryana is on the campaign of Prime Minister Modi, and the party hopes that under his leadership the party will be able to return to power here for the third consecutive time. In its election campaign, the party will try to balance the caste equations, make Congress’s corruption an issue, and attract voters by citing development work.
However, anti-incumbency, farmers’ movement, and breaking of alliance with JJP are big challenges for BJP. The unity of opposition parties and the impact of caste equations can also affect the election results. Now it remains to be seen whether the 20 days given to PM Modi and the sharp campaign of the party will help BJP return to power in Haryana or not.
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