What is the political sentiment like in the Maharashtra elections?
The campaigning for the Maharashtra assembly elections ended on Monday evening and now it’s the turn of the polls. All 288 assembly seats in the state will go to single-phase polling on Wednesday, with the fate of 4,136 candidates at stake. While the Bharatiya Janata Party-led New Democratic Alliance (Mahayuti) attempts a hat-trick of power, the Congress-led Indian alliance seems eager to make a comeback. From Prakash Ambedkar’s VBS to Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, many small parties are trying to become champions.
The political mood in Maharashtra is not entirely aligned this time, with Mahayutthi prevailing in some places and Maha Vikas Aghadi likely to prevail in some places. This time around, the role of smaller parties and independent candidates will be important because of the way the fight for seats appears to be shaping up. A total of 158 parties participated this time to try their luck. The BJP is contesting elections against the Shiv Sena led by Eknath Shinde and the NCP led by Ajit Pawar, while the Congress is contesting against the Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray and the National Communist Party (NCP(S)) led by Sharad Pawar.
How many candidates are there from which party?
Not a single political party has fielded its candidates in all the 288 seats in the Maharashtra Assembly elections. The BJP is contesting on 149 seats, while Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena is contesting on 81 seats and Ajit Pawar’s NCP is contesting 59 seats. Similarly, Congress candidates will contest in 101 assembly seats, while Sharad Pawar-led SP will contest in 86 seats and Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) will contest 95 seats. The BSP is contesting in 237 seats, while Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi is fielding candidates in 200 seats.
Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena has fielded candidates in 125 seats. The Maharashtra Swaraj Party is contesting in 32 seats, the Prahar Janshakti Party is contesting in 38 seats and the Rashtriya Samaj Paksha Party is contesting in 93 seats . Asuddin Owaisi-led party AIMIM has fielded candidates in a total of 17 seats, while the Samajwadi Party is trying its luck in nine seats. In addition to these parties, some 2,086 independent candidates are also in the running.
Whose reputation is at stake?
If we look at the results of the 2019 Assembly elections in Maharashtra, out of 288 seats, the BJP won 105 seats and the Shiv Sena won 56 seats. While the NCP won 54 seats, the Congress won 44 seats. In addition, some 29 seats were won by other parties, 16 of which were won by minor parties, while independents won 13 seats. The BJP-Shiv Sena won a total of 161 seats, while the Congress-NCP managed to win 98 seats.
The NDA won more seats than a majority, but relations between Shivsena and the BJP soured over the chief ministership. Uddhav Thackeray broke ties with the BJP and formed the government with the Congress and the NCP. Two and a half years later, the Shiv Sena rebelled. Eknath Shinde left Uddhav along with 38 MLAs and formed the government with the BJP. After this, NCP rebelled in 2023 and Ajit Pawar joined the government along with 40 MLAs.
Political Chemistry 2024
In the Maharashtra Assembly elections, there is yet another contest between the National Development Alliance led by the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Indian Alliance led by the Congress Party (Mahayuti vs. Maha Vikas Aghadi). The 2024 Lok Sabha elections were conducted on this alliance model, with Mahavikas Aghadi gaining the upper hand over the ruling Mahayuti. Maha Vikas Aghadi won 31 seats while Mahayuti had to settle for 17 seats.
According to the Lok Sabha election results, Mahavikas Aghadi is leading by about 160 seats while Mahayuti is leading by 128 seats. The difference in vote share between Mahayuti and Mahavikas Aghadi was only 0.7%. In this case, a swing of 2 to 3 percent of the vote can make or break any coalition. The Congress is strong in Vidarbha and the BJP in north Maharashtra. Similarly, the Congress-Uddhav-Sharad Pawar duo is popular in western Maharashtra and Marathwada, while the dominance of the SJP-BJP is evident in Konkan. The two alliances are locked in a close race for the Mumbai seat.
Maharashtra’s electoral road becomes tough
The road to the Maharashtra Assembly elections will not be easy for anyone. In this assembly election, no single issue will affect all assembly seats in the state. Because of this, people also have doubts and confusion about the slogan. The BJP tried to narrate the narrative with slogans of “Batenge to Katenge” and “Ek hain to safe hain” but could not find consensus even within the NDA camp. Not just Ajit Pawar, many BJP leaders have also said they will reject the slogan.
The nature of the electoral battle has also changed this time, with multi-corner contests emerging in each assembly constituency, with two from the Shiv Sena, two from the National Congress Party (NCP) and the Congress Mandated candidates of both the party and the BJP occupied the fixed seats. . Rebel candidates from these parties have also made campaigning difficult in many places. In this case, who will weaken whose votes from which side? There is confusion in every camp about this, and every conceivable trick is being used to resolve it.
The direction of power will be determined by 73 seats
About a quarter of Maharashtra’s total 288 assembly seats could prove a turning point in power. In the last election, 73 seats were won by less than 10,000 votes. In this case, if some of the votes in these 72 seats are skewed, the whole game goes wrong, because these are the seats that scare some people and bring hope to others. The difference between victory and defeat in five seats was less than a thousand votes, and the difference between victory and defeat in four seats was between one thousand and two thousand votes. The winning margin for 28 seats ranges from 2,000 to 5,000. There are 36 seats, with a difference of 50,000 to 10,000 votes.
Because of the way the political situation unfolded in the assembly elections, all political power was concentrated in the 73 low-margin seats in the state. The margin of victory for these 73 seats in the last election was less than 10,000 votes, and manipulating a few votes would change the power game. If we look at the results of the last elections, out of a slim 73 seats, the BJP controlled 28 seats. NCP won 15 seats, Congress won 12 seats and Shiv Sena won 5 seats. Apart from this, 13 seats were won by others and independents.
