There has been a lot of change in geo politics in recent times. Especially in South Asia. And India has been most affected by this. For example, the coup in Bangladesh is no less than a shock for India.
Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had once said – ‘You can change friends, not neighbours.’ The biggest problem with India is that it has not got very good neighbours.
Among all the neighbors of India, there is not a single one where there is political stability. There was Bangladesh, which was politically and economically stable, but last week there was a coup there too. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had to resign and also had to leave Bangladesh. Currently Sheikh Hasina is in India.
Barring Bhutan, all the neighboring countries have governments whose stance is considered anti-India. There has been a change of power in Nepal only last month and now there is a pro-China government. There is currently an interim government in Bangladesh and Mohammad Yunus is its head. But elections will be held there in a few months and there is a possibility of a government coming in which may adopt an anti-India stance.
How big is the crisis of Bangladesh?
Bangladesh was formed with the help of India and since then the relations between the two countries were excellent. But now Sheikh Hasina not being in power may be difficult for India. Sheikh Hasina has been closer to India and her stay in power has been beneficial for India.
Last month Sheikh Hasina went on a tour of China. But she left the tour midway and returned. As soon as Sheikh Hasina returned to Bangladesh, she made a big announcement for India. She had said that both India and China are interested in the Teesta project, but she wants India to complete it.
Now after Sheikh Hasina coming to power, the possibility of coming an anti-India government has increased. A government of Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and Jamaat-e-Islami can be formed. Their inclination is considered more towards Islamic fundamentalism. BNP is closer to Pakistan than India and China benefits from this, because Pakistan is its good friend.
Not only this, Sheikh Hasina’s government has also been sensitive regarding terrorism. During his government, action was taken against anti-India terrorist groups. But now the danger of infiltration of terrorists from Bangladesh has also increased.
Instability in Bangladesh is worrying not only for India but also for India. Because employment and inflation are already a big problem there. Therefore, Bangladesh would also like that its relations with India remain as they are, because it will benefit economically from it.
However, now there is also a possibility of Bangladesh moving closer to China. Sheikh Hasina’s government was run by maintaining a balance between India and China.
Also read: Quota system just an excuse? Due to these 3 reasons anger erupted against Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh
Is China cornering India’s neighbours?
Sri Lanka has been going through instability for a long time. The reason for this is China only. Pakistan has been India’s enemy since independence. Myanmar too has been under military rule for many years. Only last year, Mohammed Muizzu, who is considered a supporter of China, has become the President of Maldives. In Nepal too, China supporter KP Sharma Oli became the Prime Minister last month.
– Bhutan: Bhutan, surrounded by land on all sides, now seems to be moving closer to China. Talks to resolve the border dispute with China are in the final stages. Doklam, an area of 269 square kilometres, is the area of dispute between China and Bhutan. The second area is Jakarlung and Pasmalung hill area of 495 square km. China has proposed that it will give up its claim on 495 square km area if Bhutan gives it Doklam of 269 square km. If both agree on this, then China’s army will come closer to India. In 2017, there was tension between India and China in Doklam for 76 days.
– Nepal: Only last month, Pushp Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’ was removed from power. Now KP Sharma Oli is the Prime Minister here. Prachanda was considered pro-India, while Oli is closer to China. When Oli was the Prime Minister, Nepal had announced to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project in 2017. Not only this, Oli’s attitude towards India has also not been positive. In 2019, when he was the Prime Minister, Oli had described India’s Lipulekh, Kalapani and Limpiyadhura as part of Nepal. A new map of Nepal was also released in May 2020, in which these three areas were shown as its part.
– Maldives Mohammad Muizzu had won in the presidential elections held last year. Muizzu had fought his entire election on the ‘India Out’ campaign. Muizzu is considered a supporter of China. After Muizzu became the President, relations between India and Maldives continued to deteriorate. Before Muizzu, Ibrahim Mohammad Solih was the President. Relations between India and Maldives had become stronger during Solih’s government. During Muizzu’s government, Maldives had signed 20 agreements with China to reduce its dependence on India. However, now the Muizzu government is changing its policy regarding India. Maldives says that it is confident that whenever it is in trouble, India will be the first to react.
– Myanmar: It has been struggling with civil war for more than three and a half years. In February 2021, the army here had removed the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi. Currently, Army Chief Min Aung is running the government here. It is said that 50% of the areas have been captured by the rebels. Although Myanmar is considered close to China, but under military rule it has become closer to China. China is a member of BRI since 2017 and China’s debt is continuously increasing. According to a report, Myanmar may soon go bankrupt.
– Sri Lanka: There is a serious economic crisis here from 2022. China was the reason for Sri Lanka’s economic ruin. The closeness between Sri Lanka and China increased during Rajapaksa’s government. China bankrupted Sri Lanka by giving loans. When Sri Lanka declared itself bankrupt in April 2022, it had a debt of more than $51 billion. However, Ranil Wickremesinghe, who became President after Gotabaya Rajapaksa was ousted from power, has improved the economy. Elections are going to be held in Sri Lanka in September-October this year. Wickremesinghe will contest as an independent candidate. If Wickremesinghe wins, then it is good for India. But if any other party or alliance wins, it will be a matter of concern for India.
Also read: Who is the ‘white man’ whose offer Sheikh Hasina had mentioned? Why is America being blamed for the coup?
Pakistan has been an enemy since the beginning
Relations between India and Pakistan have been tense since partition in 1947. Both the countries have fought three wars so far. Two of these wars have taken place for Kashmir. And there is always tension on the border.
Pakistan has been under military rule for half of its history. And even half the time when a democratically elected government has come, its stance has been anti-India.
Pakistan has been close to China for a long time. China has also invested billions of dollars there. Under the BRI project, an economic corridor is also being built between China and Pakistan, for which China is bearing more than 80% of the expenses.
Pakistan’s economy is also getting worse due to China’s debt. Its currency is continuously becoming weak. Due to this, inflation is also taking a bad toll.
What is India doing?
To keep its neighbors together and away from China, India has been helping the neighboring countries a lot. India has kept a fund of about Rs 4 thousand crore in the budget of 2024-25 to help its seven neighbours.
Barring Pakistan, India has spent thousands of crores of rupees on all its neighbors in the past years. In fact, if seen, South Asia is also becoming a ‘battle arena’ for China and India.
China has reached out to all South Asian countries through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). By doing this he has surrounded India from all sides. In such a situation, it is necessary to provide economic assistance to India to reduce the influence of China in these countries.
The NDA government is trying to keep its neighbors with itself through ‘Neighbor First Policy’. To reduce the influence of China, it is important for India to keep these countries close to itself.