Something is brewing within the Bharatiya Janata Party: If it is a Union minister who sparks a frenzy of debates by his utterances at one time, it is a deputy chief minister whose statement grabs media attention at another. Has the BJP’s talisman, its discipline, started to fray with the party failing to achieve the expected victory at the general election?
The party clearly needs serious brainstorming, but the BJP brass is too busy mud-slinging. Remember the Kalyan Singh saga when Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the prime minister? BJP got a drubbing in Uttar Pradesh at the general election of 1999 after Singh’s differences with Vajpayee surfaced. Soon, Singh was replaced as chief minister of the state. The BJP lost UP sometime after the assembly election in 2002 and returned to power only 15 years later. It was also out of power at the Centre for 10 years. Since 2017, the BJP’s Yogi Adityanath has been the chief minister of UP. The party retained power at the assembly elections in 2022, rallying behind Adityanath. Against this backdrop, the BJP believed it would win at least 75 seats in the Lok Sabha elections in the state. But it did not. Why?
The following account from Robertsganj parliamentary constitutency in UP may help find an answer. Just ahead of the election, as I was travelling on the forested Renukoot-Varanasi route, I met a bunch of tribal women goatherds near Hathi Nala. I struck up a conversation with them and asked them to list the changes they had seen over the past 10 years due to the state government’s actions. They said they had received piped water connection at their homes. On whom these women planned to vote for, they said it was the flower, referring to the lotus symbol of BJP. When asked whether they knew who the country’s prime minister was, one of them pointed to a picture of Narendra Modi printed on a newspaper I was holding. But here came the catch. A candidate from Apna Dal, an NDA ally, was contesting the election in their constituency on the cup-and-saucer symbol. How will these uneducated women find the flower if they searched for it on the EVM? Did these women return feeling let down by the EVMs at the election? Probably yes, as Rinki Kole, the NDA candidate, was defeated by more than 125,000 votes.
The women had also told me that no one had canvassed them for votes and there were rumours that Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh members and party workers had geared down election campaigning efforts.
A strong organization can be undermined by the lethargy of overconfidence and blind dependence on one leader. The BJP suffered this outcome.
Here’s another story from central India, where I met a BJP candidate. “Bhai sahab, I have to just break the record of the previous candidate,” he told me. I asked him what made him so confident of a victory. “Modi ji’s ‘craze’ is such that even you will win the election if you are placed in my position,” he replied. There is no room for slumber like this in politics. The election results have given BJP an opportunity to correct its mistakes. It has the means, the time, and a capable leadership to do so.
The party will need to prevent its chinks from showing, and it also needs to lift morale of its workers. In the past decade, a large number of new members joined BJP, but allegations of corruption cloud the reputation of many. They still hold key positions, nurturing the notion that joining BJP was the sole option for those opposing the party to avoid action from central investigating agencies. It’s true that some from other parties have contributed to the BJP’s victory, but the gamble has backfired in other cases. The recent by-elections to 13 assembly seats offers evidence. BJP won only two of these seats. Nearly everyone who had switched sides was defeated. Workers’ perception that outsiders were snatching their rights is a key factor contributing to their indifference. Also, BJP will need to improve how it communicates the party’s message. The party did not receive the expected results as it became mired in the debate over the constitution. Despite repeated denials by senior leaders, this narrative could not be effectively countered.
And lastly, the most crucial factor. Without doubt, Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains the nation’s most popular leader, and the BJP has accomplished much over the past 10 years in terms of public welfare works. The presence of a popular leader and these achievements are adequate to handle some of the current wobble. However, the party needs to put a stop on its gabby leaders and sharpen its message.
Shashi Shekhar is editor-in-chief, Hindustan. Views are personal.
