By-elections are ongoing in nine assembly seats in Uttar Pradesh. There is a dispute between the opposition Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Congress party over these seats. While the Congress claimed five seats, the Samajwadi Party offered it only two seats – Ghaziabad Sadar and Khel assembly seats in Aligarh district. There was talk that the Congress might refuse to contest the elections to these two seats, and that was the case.
The big party gave Northern Alliance’s Akhilesh Yadav a free rein. The SP chief himself posted on Twitter that candidates from the Indian League will contest under the SP logo in all nine seats. The question is, why did the Congress party, which insisted on getting five seats in the UP by-elections, decide to let Akhilesh go at the last minute? Is the reason behind this a lesson from Haryana’s failure or is there something else? This can be understood from four points.
1- Haryana struggles to contain damage
Ahead of the Haryana elections, Leader of Opposition in the Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi has initiated an alliance with the Aam Aadmi Party. However, the alliance failed to form. Negotiations with the SP are also continuing, but the Congress has not given up even a single seat. After the Congress’ defeat in Haryana, allied leaders also started showing a mirror to the Congress party. While the Shiv Sena UBT has raised questions about the Congress party’s electoral strategy, Akhilesh Yadav described the Congress’ defeat in Haryana as a lesson for everyone.
In Haryana, despite initiatives by the Congress leadership, the state unit has sidelined the Aam Aadmi Party and Samajwadi Party, causing displeasure among its allies. Now, one of the reasons why Congress gave Akhilesh Yadav a free hand in Uttar Pradesh is that there should not be a split in anti-BJP votes like in Haryana. One reason is the strategy of keeping allies simple through softening, at least while the wounds left by Haryana’s neglect have yet to heal.
2- Watch for the 2027 elections
One reason is that the two seats the party gained were based not on the possibility of victory but on the guarantee of defeat. Both Ghaziabad and Khel seats are considered to be strong strongholds of the BJP. If Congress contested these seats, its chances of winning would be slim, and it would have two shortcomings. One is that it may have an adverse impact on the morale of party members after a good result in the Lok Sabha elections; second, it will set rules for the seat allocation formula for the 2027 Lok Sabha elections. The by-election results may not have any impact on the balance of power in the BJP, but its impact could shape the future politics of the Indian bloc.
3- No chance of surrounding your allies
Regarding by-elections, the ruling party is believed to have an advantage. One is this factor, and the other is the difficulty of getting seats. If Congress cannot get the seat quota, its allies will have the opportunity to corner it. The party may turn out to be a villain like the one that insisted on adding seats after the grand alliance fell narrowly behind the majority following the Bihar election results. The party also had a much lower strike rate than the Socialist Party in UP seats in the recent Lok Sabha elections.
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In the recent general election, the Socialist Party contested 63 seats and won a majority of 37 seats. Congress, meanwhile, contested 17 seats but could win only a third of them. This could be one of the reasons behind it if the Congress leadership decides to support the Socialist Party rather than remain intransigent in the by-elections and become a concern for both the government and opposition alliances.
4- UP requires support from SP
The focus of Congress is more on national politics than state politics. From a national political point of view, a large state like Uttar Pradesh is very important. SP’s support is necessary for political parties in the state. Statistics say, not us. In the 2022 Awami League elections, the Congress party, contesting alone, could win only two seats, while in the recent Lok Sabha elections, it won seven seats in alliance with the Samajwadi Party.
Also read: ‘Alliance candidates will be contested under SP symbol in all 9 seats in UP’, what does this statement by Akhilesh mean
On the one hand, the party does not control any of the nine seats where by-elections are ongoing. Now, when these seats are no longer in the party’s hands, making a fuss here will only harm the party’s future prospects. Perhaps this could also be the reason why the Congress leadership thought it best to cooperate rather than strain relations with the Samajwadi Party by insisting on seats.
