Two hundred and fifty deaths have been confirmed in the Wayanad landslide that occurred on Monday night, while many people are still missing. Meanwhile, the Home Ministry claimed that an alert was sent by them to the Kerala government through the Early Warning System, which was ignored. Whereas this is the system by which disasters in the country, including Odisha and Gujarat, are being predicted and prevented across the world.
what is this system
Early warning system is an arrangement through which the meteorological department or many departments together predict any natural disaster like earthquake, tsunami, flood or cyclone before its arrival. Its objective is to take people to safe places in time so that the loss of life and property is minimized. This is a method of disaster management.
Which disasters does it work on?
To reduce the impact of disaster, an early warning system was prepared at the international level. A lot of work was done on this in America. The US Geological Survey monitors earthquakes, volcanoes and other geological hazards, while the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration works on maritime disasters. Apart from this, there is also National Weather Service, which issues warnings along with weather forecast.
We also have many government agencies for this. For example, the National Disaster Management Authority does all the planning to minimize the risk. Apart from this, we not only have a meteorological department but also a seismological centre.
How effective is this?
Its power can be estimated from the fact that if warning is received even 24 hours in advance, the loss caused by the disaster can be reduced by 30 percent. However, even now the less developed countries comprising one-third of the world’s population do not have this system, or it is not effective enough to catch the disaster ahead of time.
where does india stand
Early warning system was prepared in the country in the year 2016 and currently it is one of the most modern systems in the world. In this too, India is among the few countries which predict disaster 7 days in advance. Under this, information is sent to the concerned state every week, which also remains public on the website. According to the report of Economic Times, our scientists are helping five countries – Nepal, Bangladesh, Mauritius, Maldives and Sri Lanka in preparing such a system.
What is the process of giving warning?
Sometimes a sudden warning can create a situation like fear or stampede among the common people. Keeping this in mind, many protocols are followed. The responsibility of sending warnings rests with the India Meteorological Department. This information is given in balanced terms on its website, government channels, social media handles, and news agencies. Meanwhile, both the Center and the state take precautionary measures.
How to make predictions
Scientists collect data about weather, earthquakes and other disaster events through sensors and different instruments. Many times, a special pattern is seen in these disasters that such and such places are sensitive to it, or it happens at such and such times. Sensors also keep telling about the changes happening continuously. On the basis of these warnings are issued. Although this can be quite tricky. It was considered very difficult to detect landslides and earthquakes in advance.
Why is it difficult to detect earthquakes?
There are signs of tremors coming again after the earthquake, but prediction is difficult. One reason for this is fault lines. These lines are spread inside the earth. Due to the movements below, many earthquakes occur in a day. Almost all of them are so weak that no one is aware of them, while some are very powerful. This heavy traffic of movements creates confusion and it is difficult to detect a major earthquake.
Why is accurate prediction of landslide difficult?
Landslide is an event when a large part of sloping land suddenly slides downwards. There can be many reasons for this, including rain, earthquake or human activities like cutting forests or building buildings at high places. This is the biggest reason for the inability to make predictions. Many times something gets missed out of so many factors. Or adding them all together does not yield an accurate result.
There is also a lack of data on landslides, which hinders understanding of the patterns. Anyway, the possibility of landslide also depends on the geographical conditions of that particular place. Since the conditions vary from place to place, landslides cannot be predicted for every place using the same model.