Air pollution levels in the National Capital Region of Delhi are increasing rapidly. Delhi’s growing air pollution problem has taken a worrying turn, according to the latest data from the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) in Pune. The contribution of stubble burning to Delhi’s pollution reached a season high of 8% last Tuesday, compared with 3.2% on Monday. This number is expected to increase significantly in the coming days as winter approaches, which could pose serious risks to air quality and public health. Today, pollution caused by straw burning is expected to increase by about 15% on Wednesday, to about 21% on Thursday, and to stabilize at about 20% on Friday.
Delhi’s pollution problem yet to ease
The dangerous rise in pollution levels can be attributed to an increase in crop burning incidents. Last Tuesday, a total of 1,483 fire incidents were recorded, the highest number of the season and significantly higher than Monday’s 544 fire incidents. The last highest number recorded was on October 12, with 964 incidents. This disturbing trend has not only increased in Punjab and Haryana but is also spreading in other states like Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan due to agricultural practices.
As the impact of stubble burning continues to grow, it will surpass vehicular pollution as the leading cause of smog in Delhi. The contribution rates of traffic pollution on October 23, 24 and 25 were 13.5%, 14.6% and 15.1% respectively. Until now, vehicle emissions have been the dominant factor, but the rapid increase in crop straw fires is changing the dynamics of pollution sources.
Delhi’s air quality will deteriorate significantly in the coming days. It is predicted that the country will fall into the “very poor” category between October 24 and October 26, 2024. This worrying trend is expected to worsen over the next six days, with air quality likely to reach “severe” levels. Meteorological conditions were not conducive to the dispersion of pollutants, with calm winds throughout the night, effectively trapping pollutants near the ground.
The surface wind direction in Delhi changed. The wind speed remained at 6 to 12 kilometers per hour on October 23. It was foggy in the morning and the sky was clear during the day. Tomorrow, October 24, winds are expected to be from the north-northwest and north at the same speed. In addition to this, by October 25, the wind direction will change again and the wind speed will be between 6 and 14 kilometers per hour. On October 26, the wind will blow from the east-southeast and the wind speed will slow down to 6 to 8 kilometers per hour, which will further hinder the spread of pollution.
The maximum mixing depth, a major factor affecting air quality, is expected to decrease from 1,500 meters on October 23 to 1,250 meters on October 26. At the same time, the ventilation index (which should ideally exceed 6000 m2/s to effectively disperse pollutants) will drop significantly from 7800 m2/s on October 23 to just 3000 m2/s on October 26. This, coupled with the average wind speed of less than 10 kilometers per hour, creates an unfavorable environment for removing pollutants from the air.
Delhi residents are advised to exercise caution as air quality deteriorates and immediate relief is not possible. Especially those who are in frail health. Outdoor activities should be minimized during this period to reduce adverse health effects caused by poor air quality.
