Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and both the Deputy CMs have reached Delhi for the meeting. Many important meetings are to be held in Delhi in the next 48 hours. The first meeting of NITI Aayog is on Saturday, the second meeting is of Chief Ministers and Deputy CMs of BJP ruled states. It is believed that there can be an important meeting between CM Yogi and the top leadership of BJP regarding Uttar Pradesh.
There is also discussion that CM Yogi may also meet Sangh chief Mohan Bhagwat present in Delhi in the next 48 hours. Both UP Deputy CMs Keshav Maurya and Brajesh Pathak did not attend the Chief Minister’s review meeting. Keshav Maurya was not present in the meeting of Prayagraj division and Brajesh Pathak was missing in the meeting of Lucknow division.
The question is whether both of them were not called or whether both of them distanced themselves from the Chief Minister’s review meeting. On the other hand, Pallavi Patel, who defeated Keshav Maurya in the elections, had a meeting with CM Yogi Adityanath yesterday. Amid discussions of differences with Maurya, political implications are being sought regarding the timing of the meeting; the meeting with Pallavi Patel heated up the market of speculation. Calling CM Yogi as well as both the Deputy CMs to Delhi amid internal strife shows that something big is going on internally.
BJP is claiming that everything is fine in the party, but apart from this claim, the ground reality seems completely different. First, Deputy CM Keshav Maurya called the organization bigger than the government in the organization meeting, then the absence of both the Deputy CMs in the review meeting of CM Yogi. This is pointing towards a tussle within the party. If we combine the timing of Akhilesh Yadav’s offer and the discord within BJP, the political picture will become clear. This means that everything is not well within BJP.
Is there a plan to topple the government amidst discord?
On June 4, the results of Lok Sabha elections came, here the results came and there the political market of discussions of change in UP became hot. Claims started being heard in the political circles that the blame for the poor performance in UP would fall on some big leader. These discussions were fueled by a statement by Keshav Prasad Maurya. Just then the internal fight came to the surface. Meanwhile, Akhilesh Yadav entered the fight between organization versus government – and he killed two birds with one stone.
Now understand how Akhilesh Yadav, like an experienced political player, hit two birds with one stone. Akhilesh Yadav increased the heartbeat of BJP government in UP by announcing the monsoon offer, through his offer he gave the message that if the dissatisfied MLAs in UP BJP rebel, then they can form the government with the support of Samajwadi Party. This means that if the leaders angry with Yogi want, there can be a coup in UP.
Akhilesh took the second target by linking BJP’s domestic feud with the narrative of Delhi vs Lucknow, an attempt to send the message that a plan to remove CM Yogi has been made in Delhi. Whatever Akhilesh Yadav said, the same thing is making rounds in the political corridors of Uttar Pradesh. Samajwadi Party MP Dharmendra Yadav is claiming that there is a solid reason behind the offer given by the party chief.
Akhilesh Yadav gave monsoon offer
Akhilesh Yadav has targeted the BJP government in UP on the pretext of monsoon offer. Now the question is that what Akhilesh said, is this possible in UP, will Yogi’s government fall if 100 BJP MLAs rebel. After all, where does Akhilesh Yadav’s offer stand on the test of numbers game? Let us tell you.
Actually, to understand this you will have to understand the mathematics of UP Assembly. At present, there are 393 MLAs out of total 403 seats in Uttar Pradesh, ten seats are vacant, where by-elections are to be held. The majority figure is 197 while the number of NDA MLAs is 283, which includes 251 MLAs from BJP, 13 from Apna Dal, 8 from RLD, 6 from SBSP, 5 from Nishad Party, while India Alliance has a total of 107 MLAs, in which Samajwadi Party Two MLAs of 105 Congress. While there are three other MLAs. Now the question is whether it is possible for the BJP government to fall in UP. Understand this from three possibilities.
First possibility-If 100 MLAs rebel against BJP, their membership will be cancelled. The number of MLAs in the House will become 293. The majority figure will be 147. BJP will have 151 MLAs, which means the government will not fall.
The second possibility is that BJP has 251 MLAs. To topple the government, two-thirds of the MLAs should separate from the BJP, that is, 168 MLAs should separate. Only then the membership will be saved. Only then will the BJP government fall. Third possibility: If 110 out of 251 BJP MLAs resign, the House strength will reduce to 283 and the majority figure will be 142.
In such a situation, if all the parties included in NDA separate and join the Indian alliance, only in such a situation Akhilesh Yadav’s offer will be successful. The possibility of which is negligible.