Asaduddin Owaisi’s party has repeatedly expressed its desire to join the Indian Union in Maharashtra. But maybe he didn’t get any response from the Congress and the NCP. While Congress said it had not received any proposal from AIMIM, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut said it would consider his proposal. There is no doubt that the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM), led by Asaduddin Owaisi, which mainly looks after the interests of Muslims, got close to one per cent of the votes in the Maharashtra elections. It’s happening. But parties across the Indian alliance often accuse him of vote-cutting. The opposition has been claiming that Owaisi’s party has been helping the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). But when AIMIM itself is talking about joining the Indian alliance, why is no party openly discussing the alliance with Owaisi? Do the electoral data suggest that the party’s actual influence in damaging the electoral prospects of these non-BJP parties is not as great as is generally believed? Let’s see what is correct?
1- Maharashtra AIMIM One percent vote can change the math in the state.
In the 2019 parliamentary elections, AIMIM contested 44 seats and won two seats, receiving 1.34% of the total votes. This is a significant improvement compared to 2014. Because at that time the party contested 22 seats, won two seats, and only received 0.93% of the total vote. Although AIMIM has always regarded itself as a political party for Muslim interests, compared with the so-called secular parties in Muslim societies, statistics show that its influence is very limited, but this limited influence is sometimes great. Mathematics is a constant somersault. Especially in today’s electoral politics. Today, with Haryana polling less than one per cent votes, the Congress has to sit in opposition.
The same happened in the Maharashtra Lok Sabha elections, with Mahavikas Aghadi defeating the ruling Mahayuti with just 0.7% increase in votes ). Mahayut won 17 seats with less than one percent of the vote, while MVA won 31 seats. Similarly, if the votes received in the Lok Sabha elections are looked at from a parliamentary perspective, Mahavikas Aghadi is leading by about 160 seats while Mahayuti is leading by 128 seats. If the number of seats is so different, only 0.7% of the vote means that every vote is up for grabs. Nonetheless, if the Indian League MVA does not allow Owaisi to play, it will mean a safe passage for victory. Mahayutti.
2- AIMIM’s performance in the last elections in Maharashtra
AIMIM contested in 44 seats in 2019, winning Malegaon and Dhule and finishing second in Aurangabad Central, Aurangabad East, Byculla and Solapur City Central. The party’s influence was reflected in a further 13 seats, where its vote margin exceeded the margin of victory. The BJP and its allies won seven of the seats, six of which belonged to the Congress-NCP alliance.
AIMIM entered Maharashtra significantly in 2014 with journalist-turned-politician Imtiaz Jaleel’s surprise victory in Aurangabad Central and Byculla state political arena. The Indian Express wrote that Jalil’s victory in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, becoming the first Muslim to represent Aurangabad Central in 39 years, was the pinnacle of AIMIM’s performance, especially with Prakash Allied with Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi (VBA). . However, the party later faced major challenges, including the breakup of its alliance with the VBA over a seat allocation dispute and its failure to retain the Aurangabad Central and Byculla seats in the 2019 assembly elections.
Imtiaz Jaleel lost the Aurangabad Lok Sabha seat in 2024 by over 1.30 lakh votes, raising serious questions about the party’s appeal among Muslim voters. Muslim voters appear to have moved towards parties that can more effectively oppose the BJP. Perhaps this is the reason why parties like the Congress and the NCP are reluctant to ally with Owaisi’s party.
3- To whom are AIMIM’s proposals and threats?
In order to consolidate its position ahead of the parliamentary elections, AIMIM is actively undertaking organizational changes. It is also changing its political strategy, the way the party fielded candidates in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar during the Lok Sabha elections, it was clear that the candidates fielded by the party were not intended to benefit the BJP. AIMIM has been constantly trying to get away from the accusation of contesting elections for the benefit of the BJP. Perhaps this is why the party proposed an alliance with the Congress and the NCP. While Congress seems reluctant to accept the proposal, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader Sanjay Raut’s stance looks positive. But with the Congress’ recent push to accuse former Aurangabad MP Imtiaz Jaleel of compromising with the BJP, an alliance with Owaisi’s party appears to be a distant dream.
However, judging from the complex situation of AIMIM manufacturing, AIMIM also seems to be creating pressure. The party not only intends to participate in the parliamentary elections, but also expressed its intention to participate in the South German People’s House by-elections. The seat fell vacant due to the death of Congress MP Vasantrao Chavan. The BJP, which inducted local prominent figures including former chief minister Ashok Chavan into the party and fielded them in the Lok Sabha, had to face defeat in Nanded.
In fact, Nanded Assembly constituency has a Muslim population of 14%, while the proportion in Nanded city reaches 24%, it may be difficult for the Congress if AIMIM contests the Nanded Lok Sabha elections.
