Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal is at a critical juncture in his political career. The Supreme Court granted him bail in the alleged Delhi liquor scam case but attached conditions that forced Arvind Kejriwal to consider resigning as the chief minister and appointing a credible successor. As per the Supreme Court’s bail conditions, he cannot visit the Chief Minister’s Office, Delhi Secretariat, or sign official documents. This move by Arvind Kejriwal to resign as the chief minister carries risks, but he and his party can also benefit from it.
The next CM will be Kejriwal’s favourite!
Kejriwal’s successor will be a loyalist of his who has full confidence in his loyalty and ability. The new chief minister will work under the supervision of Arvind Kejriwal. This will enable him to maintain executive control. Kejriwal will try to send a message to the public that there is a political conspiracy against him using investigative agencies like CBI and ED but he is still continuing to work.
Many ambitious plans will gain momentum
Arvind Kejriwal is definitely willing to implement his scheme of providing Rs 1,000 per month to women before announcing the Delhi Assembly elections. Whoever becomes the next Chief Minister of Delhi will immediately start work on this scheme on his instructions. If the Lieutenant Governor (LG) faces any hurdles in implementing the scheme, then it will be an opportunity for Kejriwal and the Aam Aadmi Party government. They will say in public that the Central government is anti-women and will not allow the implementation of the Rs 1,000 per month scheme through the LG. In this way, Kejriwal hopes to gain public sympathy before the elections.
A special general meeting can be held
A special session of the Delhi Assembly can be called to try to pass the confidence motion and send a message that all AAP MLAs are united. The special session of the Assembly will serve as a platform for Kejriwal where he can attack the BJP in his speech and put forward his views on the roadmap for the future. This will create the environment for the upcoming Delhi Assembly elections. During this period, the AAP government can also announce some plans to woo the voters.
Kejriwal hopes for public sympathy
By resigning, Kejriwal will have the opportunity to say that he did not compromise his morals for the greed of office. He will portray himself as a political martyr for resigning as chief minister despite being granted bail by the Supreme Court. He will try to win sympathy from voters with these words. However, this resignation move, while courageous, may also be risky and will affect the political future of the Delhi government and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). Such risks are multifaceted and affect both the internal structure of the party and external political challenges.
Haryana elections and the challenges ahead for AAP
The immediate challenge comes from Haryana. AAP is contesting all 90 assembly seats in the state. The party organisation in Haryana is weak compared to Delhi and Punjab. With this in mind, this election looks like a tough challenge for AAP. This is the first major political challenge that Kejriwal has faced after his release from jail and a lot will be at stake. An electoral defeat in Kejriwal’s state could erode his influence to a great extent. The opposition will also get an opportunity for ridicule. Especially considering that his sympathy appeal failed during the Lok Sabha elections when AAP could not win a single seat in Delhi and Haryana.
The timing of the Delhi election also plays a role
Delhi will face challenges of a different kind. Kejriwal understands that the timing of the Delhi assembly elections is important. A delay in the elections could offset the sympathy factor. Moreover, whoever is the next chief minister, the responsibility for delivering results will ultimately fall on Kejriwal.
The new CM’s relationship with the Lt Governor and the Centre
Another important risk is someone other than Kejriwal becoming the chief minister. While Kejriwal is confident of being picked as the chief minister, Delhi’s complex governance model requires cooperation with the lieutenant governor (LG) and the central government. There is a real chance that the centre and the LG will work more harmoniously with the new chief minister. This will give the opposition an opportunity to promote a scenario where there is a conflict between the LG and the government due to Kejriwal’s leadership style. This narrative could damage Kejriwal’s image and weaken the position of AAP.
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