The last date for nominations for all phases of the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly Election 2024 has ended. The voting for the first phase has now ended. Candidates are now busy vying for votes for the remaining two phases of the election. Many former separatists, small parties and independent candidates have also joined the Union Territory’s first election after a decade. There is a possibility of a suspension rally in Jammu and Kashmir as well after this.
As early as 2002, 2008 and 2014, voters in Jammu and Kashmir had given different mandates. Thereafter, the two parties had to come together to form the government. In 2002, the Jammu and Kashmir People’s Democratic Party and the Congress, in 2008, the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference and the Congress, and in 2014, the BJP and the People’s Democratic Party formed the government together.
In this election, the National Conference and the Congress formed a strong electoral alliance. The Abdullah family has a good control in the Kashmir Valley and the Congress is considered strong in the Jammu region. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, he won 41 of the 90 parliamentary constituencies, 5 less than the majority party’s 46 constituencies.
Multiple competition
Among the four major parties in Jammu and Kashmir, only the National Congress alliance is contesting all 90 seats. Meanwhile, the Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers Party and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) are also in the fray. The PDP is contesting on 60 seats and the BJP on 62 seats.
Sajjad Lone-led People’s Conference will contest 22 seats, Engineer Rashid-led Awami Ittehad Party (AIP) will contest 34-35 seats. Ghulam Nabi Azad-led Democratic Progressive Azad Party is contesting 23 seats, and the Apni Party is contesting over 30. Candidates of the banned Jamaat-e-Islami are contesting 10 seats as independent candidates.
Engineer Rashid’s defeat of Omar Abdullah in the Lok Sabha elections, Mehbooba Mufti’s defeat and the weakness of the PDP have forced traditional parties in the Valley to think and now they are accusing the BJP of using proxy candidates.
Engineer Rasheed’s party has entered into a strategic alliance with Jamaat-e-Islami. AIP will support Jamaat candidates in South Kashmir and Jamaat will support AIP across the Union Territories, especially North Kashmir. This does not bode well for both the National Conference and the PDP because earlier, the Congress used to support the PDP. The National Conference and the PDP said that no one knows what is going on and that this is an unusual activity initiated by certain forces.
Minor parties are busy spoiling the games of the major candidates and preparing to become kingmakers.
In 2002, Jammu and Kashmir had about 8 candidates per seat. This number almost doubled to 15.6 in 2008 and fell to 9.1 in 2014. As of September 16, nominations for 908 candidates have been accepted. This is 10.1 candidates per seat. About 44% of them are reportedly independents. This number is likely to decrease until the last date for withdrawal of nominations.
Previously, only about 200 candidates were able to save deposits in each election, which meant that only 2.2 to 2.3 candidates were able to win the election per seat. Since this number is more than two, it means that the competition is between multiple parties.
The leading candidate for a seat must receive at least 16% of the total votes in his constituency. If there is only one leading candidate for a seat, it means there is no other candidate to save his deposit. If there are two leading candidates for a seat, it means it is a two-way contest. If there are three or more leading candidates, it is a triangular or multi-cornered contest.
In 2002, the two parties had 50 seats, in 2008 49, and in 2014 59. In both 2008 and 2014, almost a third of the seats were contested in triangular or multi-cornered contests.
A close race and an undecided verdict
In the last election, there were many close races due to the diversification of the race. The average winning rate was 21% in 2002, but it dropped to 12% in 2014. In terms of votes, the winning margin in 2002 was about 20,000 votes, but it dropped to about 6,800 votes in 2014.
In 2002 and 2008, the second candidate received more votes than the winning margin in 44 seats. In 2014, this number increased to 52, about 60% of the total seats in parliament. The large number of candidates, the fierce competition, and the decisive role of the third party have led to hung parliaments in the past three elections.
The role of independent candidates
Small parties and independents also played a major role in the earlier Jammu and Kashmir elections. In 2002, he won 22 seats and received 30% of the votes. However, in 2014, their seats were reduced to 7 and the vote share was reduced to 15%.
In 2002, these parties and candidates had influence over 73 seats, which decreased to 35 in 2014. However, this still accounts for around 40% of the seats in parliament. Influence here means that a party won these seats, or came in second or third.
Talking about other parties, they made a comeback in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, winning one seat and 24% of the votes. He was ahead in 15 of the 90 constituencies. However, a clear pattern is emerging here, where other parties have made inroads in the Kashmir Valley but have not been able to succeed in Jammu.
In Jammu, other parties got 5 to 9 percent vote share in two seats. He got 22 to 46 percent votes in three seats in Kashmir Valley. Sajjad Lone, Engineer Rashid and Apni Party are mainly active in Kashmir Valley. Other parties are affecting the prospects of National Conference and People’s Democratic Party in the Valley. That is why these parties believe that BJP is behind their rise.
A section of the people in Kashmir Valley are angry about the BJP’s abrogation of the special status and are therefore leaning towards other parties. Small parties and independents are promoting here that the PDP and the NCP are friends of the BJP and one should not vote for them.
Omar Abdullah is in the fray for both seats while Mehbooba Mufti is not contesting. Engineer Rasheed’s parole has given new momentum to his party’s campaign.
In 2014, other parties won seven seats — one in Ladakh and six in Jammu and Kashmir — and secured 15% vote share.
If they get an average of 20% of the votes in this election, they can win 15 seats in the new parliament, as long as voters support “another winning candidate.” If they get 25% of the vote share, this number can increase to 16 seats. With 30%, this number can go up to 24 seats. In all these scenarios, Jammu and Kashmir could yet again be headed for a hung assembly.
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