A massive landslide caused by torrential rains in Wayanad, Kerala has caused massive devastation, killing hundreds of people. This tragic incident is raising questions on the accuracy of weather predictions made by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Aaj Tak examined the accuracy of various forecasts made by the IMD. It was revealed that the department usually gives weather forecast for the next 5 days. Along with this, daily forecast and hourly updates are also shared by IMD. Generally, the shorter the forecast period, the more accurate it is.
IMD had issued red alert on the night of 29th July
IMD issued a red alert for Kerala around 11:30 pm on July 29. The alert accurately predicted heavy rainfall around midnight, which shows IMD’s ability to make short-term weather forecasts. . A few days before the landslide, the IMD had issued an orange alert for Kerala in its daily bulletin on Sunday and Monday afternoon, indicating the possibility of heavy rains. When Aaj Tak examined these bulletins, it was found that the IMD had actually predicted severe weather conditions.
Long-term forecasts must also be accurate
These findings highlight IMD’s ability to provide accurate forecasts, which are critical for immediate disaster response. However, the horrific tragedy in Wayanad emphasizes that even long-term predictions regarding such incidents must be accurate. If alerts are issued well in advance regarding such incidents, agencies and local authorities get time to take necessary measures. Which can potentially save the lives of many people and reduce losses during natural disasters.
Short term forecasts quite accurate
However, IMD has been quite accurate in its short-term forecasts. The Wayanad incident emphasizes the need to improve long-term forecasting capabilities. Accuracy in long-term forecasting can provide critical time for disaster preparation, which can protect people from the devastating effects of weather.