When Donald Trump pulled back On its plan to put eye -water -filled tariffs on business partners worldwide, there was an important exception: China,
While the rest will be the world 90-day recurrence Beyond additional duties New 10% tariff On all American trade partners, China will feel even more. On April 9, 2025, Trump Tariff on Chinese goods increased by 125%,
This was the step in Trump’s saying Indicated by Beijing “Lack of respect for global markets.” But the US President can be smart with a clear desire of Beijing, who are facing heads to face American tariffs.
While many countries opted for Trump’s option not to retaliate against Hike, now, Trump, instead In favor of conversation and dialogueBeijing treated a differently. This responded with Swift and firm countericors. On April 11, China Trump’s trick was rejected as a “joke” And Raised your tariff 125%against America.
The two economies have now been closed in one all-out, high-intensity trade deadlock. And China is showing no signals of back down.
And as an expert in US-China relations, I will not expect from China. Against of First American-China trade war During Trump’s early tenure, China now takes more profit when Beijing eagerly sought to interact with the US.
Indeed, Beijing believes that it can cause minimal damage to the minimum damage on the US, while expanding its global state at the same time.
A converted stones for China
There is no doubt that Tariff results are serious For China’s export-oriented manufacturer – Especially in coastal areas producing furniture, clothes, toys and home equipment for American consumers.
But when Trump launched one for the first time Tariff hike on China in 2018Many underlying economic factors have shifted the calculus of Beijing significantly.
Importantly, the importance of the US market for China’s export-operated economy has declined significantly. In 2018, at the beginning of First Trade War, US-Bound Exports Responsible for 19.8% Total exports of China. In 2023, that figure was Fall up to 12.8%Tariffs may proceed to increase China further “Domestic demand expansion“Strategy, highlighting the power of its consumers and strengthening its domestic economy.
And when China entered the 2018 trade war in a phase of strong economic development, the current situation is quite different. Lazy real estate market, capital flight And Western “decouling“The Chinese economy has been pushed into a continuous recession period.
Perhaps upside down, this long -term recession may have made the Chinese economy more flexible for shocks. It has already pushed businesses and policy makers for factor in existing hard economic realities with the effect of Trump’s tariff.
Trump’s tariff policy against China may also give Beijing a useful exterior sacrifice, allowing this to rally public sentiment and blame for economic recession on American aggression.
China also understands that the US cannot easily change its dependence on Chinese goods, especially through its supply chains. Whereas There is a decrease in direct American imports from ChinaNow many goods imported from third countries still rely on Chinese -made components or raw materials.
By 2022, America Trusted China For 532 major product categories – almost four times the level in 2000 – while China’s dependence on US products was half cut in the same period.
A related public opinion calculation is: Having hopes of growing tariff Raise pricesSomething that can stir dissatisfaction among American consumers, especially blue-collar voters. Indeed, Beijing believes that Trump’s tariff carried forward the already strong American economy Towards a recession,
Powerful tools for vengeance
Along with the changed economic environment, China has also kept several strategic equipment for vengeance against the US.
It dominates the global rare Earth supply chain-important for monkey and high-tech industries- About 72% supply From some estimates, American rare earth imports. On March 4, China kept 15 American institutions in its export control listAfter Another 12 On 9 April. Many US defense contractors or high -tech firms depended on rare earth elements for their products.
China also retains the ability to target major American agricultural export sectors such as poultry and soybean-industries-Industries are highly dependent on Chinese demand and focused in states with Republican. Accounts for China Half of us exports soybean And about 10% US poultry exports. On March 4, Beijing canceled import approval Three major American soybean exporters,
And in the technical side, many American companies – such as Apple and Tesla – are deeply tied to Chinese manufacturing. Tariff is threatened Reduce their profit margin significantlySome Beijing believes that the Trump may be used as a source of leverage against administration. Already, Beijing is Alleged plan To strike back through regulatory pressure on American companies working in China.
Meanwhile, the fact is that Elon Musk, a senior trump internal formula Confrontation with American Trade Advisor Peter Navaro against tariffIs Major commercial interest in China Beijing is a particularly strong nail that can still exploit in an attempt to divide the Trump administration.
A strategic opening for China?
While Beijing feels that it can weather the widespread tariffs of Trump on bilateral basis, it also believes that the US has created a generational strategic opportunity to widely displace American suzerainty against its own business partners.
Close to the house, this change can change the geopolitical landscape of East Asia to a great extent. Already on March 30 – Trump had taken tariffs on Beijing – China, Japan and South Korea for the first time. He hosted his first economic dialogue In five years and a tripartite free trade agreement promised to carry forward. This step was particularly notable that how much care the US worked to cultivate its Japanese and South Korean colleagues. During biden administration As part of its strategy to combat Chinese regional impact. From the perspective of Beijing, Trump’s actions gave us an opportunity to destroy directly in Indo-Pacific.
Similarly, Trump’s steep tariffs on Southeast Asian countries, which were also one Major strategic regional priority During the Biden administration, those countries may be pushed close to China. Chinese state media announced on 11 April that President Xi Jinping Will visit the state For Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia from 14–18 April, aiming to deepen “all-round cooperation” with neighboring countries. In particular, all three southeast Asian countries were now targeted with trees Mutual tariff by Trump administration – 49%on Cambodian goods, 46%on Vietnamese exports and 24%on Malaysia.
There is an even more promising strategic opportunity away from China. Trump’s tariff strategy has already inspired officials from China and the European Union to strengthen their own. First stressful trade relationsSomething that can weaken the transatlantic alliance that demanded China to declare.
On 8 April, Chairman of European Commission Organized a call with China’s premiereDuring which both sides jointly condemned American trade protectionism and advocated free and open trade. Incidentally, on April 9, China’s day Tariff up to 84% on American goodsThe European Union also announced its first wave of retaliator – one imposition 25% tariff More than € 20 billion on selected US imports – but Delayed implementation After Trump’s 90-day break.
Now, the European Union and Chinese officials are holding Conversation on existing business obstacles And considering Full summit In July in China.
Finally, China sees a potential in Trump’s tariff policy US dollar weakening international standingThe broad tariff imposed on many countries has shook investors confidence in the American economy, contributing to one Decline in dollar price,
Traditionally, dollars and American Treasury Bonds have been seen as haven assets, but The recent market turmoil has suspected that situationAt the same time, the standing tariff has expressed concern about this US economy health and its debt stabilityReducing the trust in both dollar and American Treasury.
While Trump’s tariffs essentially hurt parts of the Chinese economy, Beijing has more cards to play at this time. It has equipment to do meaningful damage to American interests-and perhaps even more importantly, Trump’s all-out tariff war is providing China a rare and unprecedented strategic opportunity.
,Author: Sunday kongPh.D. Candidates in political science, Oborn University
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