While scientists have doubled the odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with Earth in 2032, new calculations show that there was a small chance that it might crash into the Moon instead, according to a report in LiveLaw. David Rankin, an operations engineer for the University of Arizona’s Catalina Sky Survey in a social media post stated that the asteroid had a 0.3 per cent chance of smashing into our natural satellite.
“There is the possibility this would eject some material back out that could hit the Earth, but I highly doubt it would cause any major threat,” said Mr Rankin.
Mr Rankin said that based on current estimates, the asteroid colliding with the Moon could release energy in upwards of 340 Hiroshima bombs with the spectacle very likely to be “visible from Earth”. A crater two kilometres across would also be formed on the lunar surface due to the asteroid’s impact.
What do we know about asteroid 2024 YR4?
The asteroid was first spotted in late December by scientists at the NASA-funded Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System station in Chile. At the time, the space rock was given a 1.3 per cent chance of collision with Earth which was nearly doubled to 2.3 per cent, within the space of a week.
The asteroid, measuring around 130 to 300 feet across, may not be big enough to cause a civilization collapse upon the impact but it is big enough to inflict major damage to a big city. It ranks as a three on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, which classifies asteroids on a scale of 0 to 10 to capture the likelihood and consequences of a potential impact.
As per NASA, 2024 YR4 follows a highly elliptical, four-year orbit, swinging through the inner planets before shooting past Mars and out toward Jupiter. If it does make an impact, the possible impact sites could be the Eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
Scientists say that there have been several objects in the past that have risen on the risk list and eventually dropped off as more data have come in. New observations may result in the reassignment of this asteroid to 0 as more data is analysed.
However, countries like China are not taking any risks and have already ordered the formation of a planetary defence force to deal with the possible doomsday scenario.