The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has made forecasts for the Indian economy. According to the International Monetary Fund’s forecast, the Indian economy can achieve a growth rate of 7% in the 2024-25 fiscal year. Even in July, the agency expected the economy to grow 7% this fiscal year, 0.2% higher than its April forecast. In addition to this, the growth rate is also expected to be 7% in fiscal 2025, while the growth rate in fiscal 2026 is expected to be 6.5%, which exceeds the growth forecasts of developed and emerging economies. Global economic growth is expected to slow to 3.2% in 2024 from 3.3% last year.
India’s October scenario projects inflation at 4.4% in FY2025 and 4.1% in FY26.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its latest Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) review, maintained its growth forecast of 7.2 per cent for the current financial year and attributed it to strong consumption and investment trends. The global economic growth forecast for 2024 and 2025 remains stable at 3.2%, slightly lowered by 10 basis points to 3.2% in 2025 compared with the 3.3% forecast in July.
Despite the challenges faced by the real estate industry and low consumer confidence, the International Monetary Fund report slightly lowered China’s economic growth forecast to 4.8%. The adjustment was attributed to better-than-expected net exports. In contrast, the economic forecasts for Brazil and Russia in 2024 have been revised down to 3% and 3.6% respectively. U.S. economic output is also expected to grow by 2.8%.
The International Monetary Fund said, “The growth prospects for emerging market and developing economies are very stable, with growth rates of approximately 4.2% this year and next, reflecting the continued strong performance of emerging markets in Asia.”
Emerging markets in Asia include China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
The forecast predicts that global headline inflation will fall from an annual average of 6.7% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025. Advanced economies are expected to reach their inflation targets earlier than emerging market and developing economies. Although commodity prices are stable, high-level services across industries remain expensive, underscoring the need for loose monetary policy.
