Arvind Kejriwal resigned as Delhi chief minister as the AAP seeks to regain lost ground, strengthen its image and boost its chances of retaining power in next year’s assembly elections , Atish has been appointed as his successor. However, AAP’s image as a “party of difference” has taken a hit amid allegations of corruption and lack of sympathy for Arvind Kejriwal during the Delhi elections.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) believes Kejriwal’s resignation vindicates its allegations against the former chief minister, which could boost its chances in the state elections. Meanwhile, the Congress party, which is part of India’s alliance with the AAP, is seeing it as an opportunity to regain its footing in Delhi. The AAP has grown at the expense of the Congress and other parties in Delhi, with its vote bank largely made up of Dalits, the poor and minorities. Both the AAP and the Congress received only anti-BJP votes.
What are the implications of Kejriwal’s resignation?
Kejriwal is India’s second most popular chief minister, according to the India Today national sentiment survey. However, his approval rating has dropped from 19.6% in February 2024 to 13.8% in August 2024. In addition to this, satisfaction with Kejriwal’s job has also dropped from 58% in August 2023 to 44% in August 2024, indicating that the allegations have had some impact on his image.
According to a survey by India Today, 49% of people think Kejriwal should resign before going to jail, 40% think he should dissolve Parliament, and 31% think his resignation will affect Delhi election. Even 32%, 33% and 19% of AAP voters feel the same. Kejriwal, considered an astute politician, understood this and decided to win the battle in a public court.
Has Kejriwal’s image been affected?
When people were asked whether Kejriwal’s image as “unflinchingly honest” had been affected, 37% said yes, 37% said no, while 32% believed his resignation would strengthen the BJP. , while 30% believed it would strengthen the AAP.
People of Delhi vote differently in Assembly and Lok Sabha elections. Regional parties gain support in parliamentary elections and national parties gain support in general elections. In the 2024 general election, the BJP retained all seven seats despite an alliance between the Congress and AAP, which called it a “ballot solution to the jail problem”. The Bharatiya Janata Party received 54% of the vote, the Australian Action Party received 24% and the Congress Party received 19% of the vote.
What is the math of votes in a general election?
Going by previous trends, AAP lost 30 per cent of votes in the 2024 general elections compared to the 2020 assembly elections, while the BJP gained 16 per cent votes and the Congress 15 per cent votes. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, AAP lost 36% of the votes compared to the 2015 Assembly elections. However, AAP recovered 36% of votes in the 2020 assembly elections, securing 54% vote share, at the expense of Congress and BJP, with AAP getting 18% from each party vote.
This shows that about 30% of Delhi’s voters do not support any political party ideologically and they keep switching between AAP, BJP and Congress depending on the type of election. These voters will decide whether AAP wins in Delhi in 2025. It will also depend on how much corruption allegations affect those voters. If AAP gets the support of half of the voters, the vote share of the BJP and AAP will be tied at 39%, and the election will be a tough battle.
AAP and Congress vote transfer
When the AAP and Congress formed an alliance for the Delhi election, some analysts suspected that their votes were being diverted to the other party’s candidates. After all, AAP’s early politics were strictly anti-Congress. However, both parties have similar voting segments, namely Dalits, minorities and the poor. Now, due to the changing political scenario, both have received votes against the BJP. As a result, the vote transfer rate between the two parties was 100%. In 2019, the two ran in separate elections and received 41% of the vote. By 2024, this proportion will increase to 43%.
Who will win Delhi elections 2025?
The AAP is part of the Indian Alliance, but its relationship with the Congress is a bit complicated. AAP was in power in two states and won both the states by defeating the Congress. The strong reaction from the Congress party after the collapse of Haryana alliance talks and Kejriwal’s resignation suggests that all is not well between the allies. Congress’s Sandeep Dikshit criticized Kejriwal’s decision, saying it had more to do with business than politics, while AAP’s Saurabh Bhardwaj described the Congress as having been helping the BJP Rivals making accusations against AAP. For now, an alliance between the two in the Delhi elections seems unlikely.
A strong Congress at the national level is not good news for the AAP as it may take away a section of Dalit, Muslim and poor voters. In the 2017 municipal elections, the AAP lost to the BJP despite winning the 2015 assembly elections. This happened because while the Congress and other outfits received 11% and 13% of the votes respectively, AAP’s vote share fell, with AAP’s vote share reaching 26%, down 28% from 2015.
In the 2022 municipal elections, AAP won in a tight contest with the BJP. It gained only a 3% lead compared to a 15% lead in the 2020 parliamentary elections. This happened because the Congress got 8% of the vote, up from 4% in 2020, and this was at the expense of the AAP. As a result, AAP won only 54% of the seats in the MCD, compared with 89% in the 2020 assembly elections.
What is the math behind vote share?
If Congress gets 5% vote share from AAP, AAP may lose 10 seats to the BJP but still get a comfortable majority of 52 seats. If the Congress gets 10% of AAP’s vote share, the AAP may lose 15 seats to the BJP but still gain a majority of 47 seats, with 36 more than half. If both the Congress and the BJP get 2.5% of the votes from the AAP, the AAP may lose 11 seats to the BJP but still have a majority of 51 seats. If both the Congress and the BJP get 5% votes from the AAP, the AAP may lose half of its seats in 2020 and the BJP may emerge as the winner with 39 seats.
The BJP cannot rely solely on the Congress to harm AAP’s prospects. It needs to attract anti-incumbency votes to prevent Kejriwal from gaining support again. Ten years is enough time for an anti-incumbency wave to naturally arise. Delhi has been the ‘workplace’ of the AAP as it was from here that the party expanded to other parts of the country. For AAP’s national ambitions, winning the state for the third consecutive time is important to equal Sheila Dikshit’s record.
