Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting Poland and Ukraine from Wednesday. Modi is the first Prime Minister of India to visit Ukraine. It is worth noting that war has been going on between Russia and Ukraine for the last two and a half years. Not only this, Modi has returned from a visit to Russia just last month. There is a stir in the media of India and abroad about why Narendra Modi wants to anger India’s special friend Russia at a time when the intensity of war between Russia and Ukraine has increased.
International affairs expert Brahma Chellaney wrote on X that, ‘Visiting Ukraine on 23 August is not only a bad time but its purpose is also not clear. The recent attack on Ukraine has dealt a blow to ceasefire efforts. No Indian PM has visited Ukraine since Ukraine gained independence. There is no solid reason for PM Modi to visit Ukraine. Especially when tensions have increased due to the war.’ The question arises whether the Indian government is not understanding this. But it is said that the biggest basis of any diplomatic relationship is the benefit of any country. Obviously, India will not be making this visit at its own expense. Let us see what are the circumstances in which this visit can prove to be a milestone for India.
1-Many defense equipment projects are in the pipeline
India has been buying a lot of defense equipment from Russia. After Ukraine separated from Russia, Ukraine took control of many of these companies. Currently, India has a lot of defense equipment that has been made in Ukraine. Many of these are still manufactured in Ukraine. This includes gas turbine engines for the warships of the Indian Navy and AN-32 aircraft operated by the Indian Air Force. Talks are going on with private companies of India to manufacture gas turbines used by Ukraine’s government Zorya-Mashproekt warships. A few years ago, India signed a $ 400 million deal with Ukraine’s STE to upgrade its fleet of 105 AN-32 aircraft and extend their lifeline by 40 years. This project is very late. India wants to complete it at any cost. Efforts are being made to complete it by 2029. It is also possible that India-Ukraine may also consider making gas turbine engines together.
2- Power to stop the Russia-Ukraine war, opportunity to shine on the world stage
British leader and former PM Tony Blair’s advisor Peter Mandelson writes in an article published in TOI that Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Ukraine is a historic opportunity for India to dominate the world stage. India can play an important role in establishing global peace by advancing its non-aligned heritage. For the last two years, there have been differences between India and Western countries on how to deal with the Russian invasion of Ukraine? The US, UK and the European Union repeatedly asked India to condemn Russia and join Western sanctions, but India continued its security and economic relations with Russia. Senior Congress leader and former Minister of State for External Affairs Shashi Tharoor also said on Tuesday that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s upcoming visit to Ukraine is a good sign and will be appreciated. Tharoor said that it is a good thing that India is showing some degree of concern towards both the warring countries Russia and Ukraine. Tharoor said, ‘Many people believe that India is in a neutral role regarding most of the conflicts in the world today. It would be good for both sides to show some degree of concern, as they did in Moscow. Now going to that country and greeting President Zelensky would be a very good gesture.
Tharoor also said that when the war started, he was very critical of India’s stance because India refused to condemn the violation of sovereign borders and the disregard for the UN Charter. But when India also adopted a helping stance with Ukraine, he had to change his stance.
3- An attempt to send a message to Russia in view of the growing friendship between Russia and China
Russian President Vladimir Putin chose China for his first foreign visit in his new term. Chinese President Xi Jinping also promised a new era of partnership with Putin. China and Russia have a long and complex relationship which is gradually getting stronger. After decades of rivalry, the two countries have finally come together in the face of Western sanctions on Russia. If Russia is developing friendship with India’s biggest enemy, then it is important for India to tell Russia that it cannot remain a follower. Not only this, Russia’s relations are also getting closer with North Korea and Iran.
Amid growing friendship between China and Russia, India has also been a big supporter of the US Indo-Pacific strategy, which promises support for regional connectivity, trade and investment. India fears that China may put pressure on Russia to alter its naval projection capabilities in the Bay of Bengal.
Peter Mandelson writes that the relationship between Russia and China has now evolved into a geopolitical and military alliance without borders. Most importantly, it is being supported by North Korea and Iran. These countries are obviously forming an anti-democratic axis that is willing to ignore the rule of law, human rights and the sanctity of international borders. It is important for India that such an alliance does not dominate the Global South and does not pose a threat to India’s territorial integrity. As one of the world’s largest economies, India must now show leadership in promoting regional and global stability.
4- Necessary for permanent connection with Central Europe
This is the first visit by an Indian prime minister to Poland since 1979, when Morarji Desai visited Warsaw; no Indian prime minister has visited Kiev since Ukraine broke away from Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union. British geopolitical thinker Halford Mackinder observed in the late 20th century that whoever rules eastern Europe rules the heartland; whoever rules the heartland rules the world-island; whoever rules the world-island rules the world. Can India afford to remain a passive spectator in this new conflict for central and eastern Europe? The prime minister’s visit to Poland and Ukraine this week suggests that India’s answer is clearly no. Contrary to widespread expectations, Modi’s Warsaw and Kiev visit may be less about a new Indian peace initiative on Ukraine. Delhi cannot see this historic visit as a one-time event; For India, it should be about setting the terms for a sustainable long-term engagement with Poland and Ukraine, and Central Europe more broadly.