The Election Commission is going to hold a press conference today at 3 o’clock. The dates of Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections can also be announced in this conference. The Supreme Court had ordered to hold assembly elections here by 30 September 2024.
This will be the first assembly election after the removal of Article 370 from Jammu and Kashmir. 370 were removed from the valley on 5 August 2019.
The assembly elections to be held after 10 years will be special in many ways. A lot of things have changed since the last assembly elections were held here in 2014. The number of seats has also increased slightly from before. Earlier the elected government used to be everything, but now most of the powers will be with the Lieutenant Governor.
In such a situation, let us know what will be different in this election which is going to be held after 10 years from the last time? And how much can this political equation change?
How much has Jammu and Kashmir changed?
Jammu and Kashmir had changed a lot on August 5, 2019 itself. After this Jammu and Kashmir was divided into two parts. First- Jammu and Kashmir and second- Ladakh. Both are now union territories. There is also an assembly in Jammu and Kashmir, whereas this is not the case in Ladakh.
Although there is an assembly in Jammu and Kashmir, the government here will no longer be the same as before. Earlier in Jammu and Kashmir the elected government was everything, but now the Lieutenant Governor will be at the top.
The Lieutenant Governor will have authority over police, land and public order. Whereas, the elected government will be able to decide on all other matters. However, the approval of the Lieutenant Governor will be necessary.
How much has the number of seats changed?
– Before: There were a total of 111 seats in Jammu and Kashmir. There were 37 seats in Jammu, 46 in Kashmir and 4 in Ladakh. There were 24 seats in Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK).
– Now: Now there will be 43 seats in Jammu and 47 seats in Kashmir. Only 24 seats are reserved for PoK. Elections cannot be held here. Whereas there is no assembly in Ladakh. In this way, there are a total of 114 seats, out of which elections will be held on 90.
Where and how many seats increased?
In Jammu region, one seat each has been increased in Samba, Kathua, Rajouri, Kishtwar, Doda and Udhampur. At the same time, one seat has been increased in Kupwara district in Kashmir region.
Ramgarh in Samba of Jammu, Jasrota in Kathua, Thannamandi in Rajouri, Padder-Nagaseni in Kishtwar, Doda West in Doda and Ramnagar in Udhampur have been newly added.
At the same time, one seat has been increased in Kupwara district in Kashmir region. Trehgam will be the new seat in Kupwara. Now there will be 6 seats in Kupwara instead of 5.
What about Kashmiri Pandits?
Two seats have been reserved for Kashmiri Pandits. However, they have been called Kashmiri migrants. Now the Lieutenant Governor will be able to nominate three members to the Assembly, out of which two will be Kashmiri migrants and one will be a displaced person from PoK. Of the two Kashmiri migrants who will be nominated, one will be a woman.
Kashmiri migrant will be considered as one who has migrated from the valley or any part of Jammu and Kashmir after November 1, 1989 and his name is registered with the Relief Commission. At the same time, any person who came from PoK after 1947-48, 1965 or 1971 will be considered displaced.
According to this, there will be a total of 93 seats in the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly. But elections will be held for 90 seats only. This is the formula of Puducherry only. There are a total of 33 assembly seats in Puducherry, out of which 30 are elected by the public, while the remaining 3 seats are nominated by the Central Government.
Along with this, 16 seats have been reserved for Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST). Of these, 7 seats have been kept for SC and 9 for ST.
How much has politics changed?
Now the politics of Jammu and Kashmir has also changed a lot. In old Jammu and Kashmir, there were 37 seats in Jammu and 46 seats in Kashmir. Therefore, after better performance in Kashmir, it became easier to form the government.
But now there will be 43 seats in Jammu and 47 seats in Kashmir. Due to this, it has now become necessary to win more seats not only in Kashmir but also in Jammu. Jammu is a Hindu majority area while Kashmir is a Muslim majority area. BJP is expected to benefit from the increase of 6 seats in Jammu.
In the 2014 assembly elections, BJP had won 25 seats (out of 37) in Jammu. Even in the recently held Lok Sabha elections, BJP has been successful in winning two seats of Jammu – Jammu and Udhampur. However, BJP had won both these seats in the last elections also.
However, it is believed that elections in Kashmir can be very interesting. That’s because the people here are angry with the removal of Article 370. BJP’s not contesting the Lok Sabha elections in Kashmir was linked to this resentment. She remained out of the electoral fray from the same Kashmir from which BJP promoted the decision of removing Article 370 across the country and described it as one of its biggest achievements.
There are discussions that some small parties have emerged in Kashmir. These also include ‘People’s Conference’ and Altaf Bukhari’s ‘Jammu-Kashmir Apni Party’. It is claimed that BJP supports these parties. It is also necessary for BJP to support these parties to garner votes and form the government in Kashmir.
What were the results in 2014?
Assembly elections were last held in Jammu and Kashmir in 2014. Out of 87 seats here, PDP had won 28, BJP 25, National Conference 15 and Congress 12. BJP and PDP together formed the government and Mufti Mohammad Sayeed became the Chief Minister.
Mufti Mohammad Sayeed died in January 2016. Governor’s rule remained in force for about four months. Later his daughter Mehbooba Mufti became the Chief Minister. But this alliance did not last long. On June 19, 2018, BJP broke the alliance with PDP. Governor’s rule came into force in the state. Currently President’s rule is in force there.
Maintaining the decision of removing Article 370 last year, the Supreme Court has ordered the Central Government to hold assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir by 30 September 2024.