Monday was filled with severe violence and arson in Bangladesh. The student movement turned into violence due to clashes between protesters and government supporters. The crowd became so furious that Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina had to resign and flee the country. She has reached India and is currently staying at Hindon Air Base. The protesters entered the PM House and demolished the statue of Sheikh Mujib, known as the Father of the Nation of Bangladesh, with a bulldozer. The Indian government is keeping an eye on the situation in the neighboring country. Experts spoke to Aaj Tak about what impact Bangladesh’s instability can have on India and what is going to happen next in Bangladesh.
Tension will increase if anti-India government comes
Strategic expert Sushant Sarin said, ‘Such situations arise only when no one imagines. If you imagine in advance, such steps will be taken that you will not see such situations. Ever since Bangladesh was born, such upheavals happen every 5-10 years, they last for some time and then things settle down. But the effect this boil leaves behind is not always good.
He said, ‘India will also be worried whether a third front is opening after China and Pakistan. If a government comes to power in Bangladesh which has hatred towards India… like Jamaat-e-Islami is famous for terrorism. Last time when he formed the government with BNP, there was a lot of terrorism from his side in India, in which Pakistan was also involved. In such a situation, if his government comes, then it has to be seen what situation arises. Tension will increase there.
‘Situation will remain delicate in Bangladesh’
Sushant Sarin said, ‘Will the Army, which had formed the caretaker government there in 2007 and 2009, have that type of government? Although its possibility is less. If the army directly forms the government then the effect will be different. It won’t be acceptable to very many people. Even the people of Bangladesh do not know for how long that government will be in place, then elections will be held, when the government will be formed, what will be its form. The situation in Bangladesh will remain critical for some time but Bangladesh will not disintegrate completely. The disturbance will subside but it is still difficult to say on which side it will sit.
Many questions before Bangladesh
Sushant Sarin said, ‘According to the latest news coming, some names have been announced. In the interim government that will be formed, there are three-four army officers, some judges, some academics, a Hindu has also been kept. Does not have any radical image. Will those who have been selected be acceptable to the interim government? If this happens then when will the elections be held? Will there be elections or will this government run for one or two years?
‘These are not good days for Bangladesh’
He said, ‘There has been a loss of 10 billion dollars. That too at a time when Bangladesh is already in an IMF program. There were financial problems. There was inflation, unemployment was also increasing. The economic situation will not improve now because Bangladesh is an export economy which will be affected. Because now a lot of goods which have to be sent will not be able to be sent. Industries come to a halt, all business stops, deadlines are missed. That will be a different upheaval which will be visible in future. So the situation is not good and will not remain good for the coming weeks and months. Its effect will last for a long time. These are not good days for Bangladesh.
‘India will keep a close watch on Bangladesh’
On the role of the Indian government, former diplomat Ashok Sajjanhar said, ‘There is still a lot of uncertainty. I believe that India’s attitude will be that this is an internal matter of Bangladesh. It is true that Sheikh Hasina has good relations with India. There have been good relations between the two countries since his father’s time. Since 2009, when Sheikh Hasina came to power, it was a golden time for the relations between India and Bangladesh. We will only say that this is an internal matter of Bangladesh. India will keep a very close watch on the developments there. The Army Chief there repeatedly mentioned the ‘Interim Government’ in his address. The army does not want to run the government by taking power in its own hands. That’s why we have to see who becomes the interim Prime Minister.