When the war broke out between Israel and Hamas on October 7 last year, Hezbollah also joined it. Israeli President Herzog has said that if Hezbollah intervenes, Lebanon will pay the price. Then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also warned that Hezbollah would regret it if it made the mistake of joining the fight.
The war between Hamas and Israel has been going on for nearly a year. Now Israel is openly targeting Hezbollah. What began last week as a pager attack has now shifted to airstrikes.
According to reports, so far, more than 580 people have been killed in Lebanon due to Israeli bombings, including dozens of children. Lebanon’s health minister called it “genocide.”
After Hamas, the way Israel is now attacking Hezbollah is also considered the beginning of the Third Lebanon War. If this happens, a major war will break out in Lebanon in 17 years.
Why is the Third War considered the beginning?
Since the war between Hamas and Israel broke out, Hezbollah has also been actively involved. Hezbollah is backed by Iran and declared a terrorist organization by the United States and Israel.
In fact, Israeli forces have been attacking Hezbollah positions in Lebanon for months. But on September 17, Israel asked its people to return. Since then, Israel appears to be preparing for a major operation in Lebanon. On the same day, pagers used by Hezbollah fighters to communicate were attacked. The attack killed 9 people and injured more than 4,000 people. The next day, walkie-talkies, radios, laptops and electronic devices exploded, killing dozens of people.
On September 19, the Israeli army attacked many Hezbollah positions in Lebanon. 100 rocket launchers were used in the attack that day. On September 20, Israel launched a large-scale attack on Beirut. The attack occurred against Hezbollah’s Radwan forces. Israel claimed to have killed 10 senior Hezbollah commanders in the attack.
Then on September 23, Israel launched its most dangerous attack in two decades. Israeli troops attack southern Lebanon. So far, more than 580 people have been killed in the attack.
Israeli army spokesman Maj. Gen. Daniel Hagari said the Israeli military will take all necessary measures to expel Hezbollah from Lebanon, which borders Israel.
READ ALSO: Hezbollah knew of Israeli plans, rushed pager attacks… Read – Insider
When has there ever been a war in Lebanon before?
– The 1982 War and the Formation of Hezbollah
In March 1978, Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) terrorists infiltrated into Israel and killed an American tourist. Afterwards, a bus was hijacked and 34 hostages were killed. In response, Israeli forces attacked Lebanon and selectively targeted terrorist hideouts. About two months later, some peace emerged with the help of the United Nations.
However, conflicts between the PLO and Israeli forces continued. In July 1981, the ceasefire between the two countries was broken and the PLO launched more than 270 attacks in Israel, killing 29 Israelis and injuring more than 300 others. It is believed that there were 15 to 18,000 PLO fighters in Lebanon at the time.
In 1982, Palestinian terrorists attempted to assassinate the Israeli ambassador to the United Kingdom, and the situation further deteriorated. On June 6 of the same year, the Israeli army began Operation Peace in Galilee.
At the same time, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are believed to have created Hezbollah to fight Israeli forces. The Israeli army has stepped up its attacks on Lebanon. According to reports, as of September 1, 1982, more than 14,000 PLO militants had left Lebanon. PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat was among them. The war finally ended on June 5, 1985.
– The war in 2006 lasted 34 days
On July 12, 2006, Hezbollah launched a rocket attack on Israel. Hezbollah militants have since entered the Israeli border and killed three soldiers. However, the two were taken hostage.
Then-Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert held Lebanon responsible and called it an “act of war.” He said Lebanon would have to live with the consequences. This was because Hezbollah had two ministers in the Lebanese government at the time. That same night, Israeli forces attacked Lebanon.
Israeli forces continue to conduct ground and air attacks. Many places in Lebanon were hit by air strikes. The runway of Beirut International Airport was also destroyed in the air strike.
The 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah resulted in the deaths of more than 1,100 Lebanese civilians. 165 Israeli citizens also lost their lives. Although no one won the war, Lebanon suffered huge direct losses.
According to the International Committee of the Red Cross, during that war, Israeli forces completely destroyed or damaged more than 30,000 homes. 109 bridges and 78 medical facilities were damaged.
Also read: Israel’s ‘pager attack’ scares Hezbollah! know why it’s called psychological warfare
Will the Third Lebanon War begin now?
Israel’s operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon is ongoing, and the danger of another large-scale war has emerged.
But experts believe Israel, which has also suffered losses from its war with Hamas, will proceed largely cautiously. Hezbollah militants operate along the Israeli border and around the Litani River. Israel wants to drive them out of here. It is believed that if Hezbollah forces do not retreat, the Israeli army can launch a ground attack.
Before launching a ground attack in Lebanon, Israeli forces could adopt the same strategy as in Gaza. Before starting the ground operation in Gaza, the Israeli army had carried out air strikes for many days. The same thing is happening now in Lebanon. Air strikes in Lebanon have continued for several days.
Experts believe that if Israel feels the need to launch a ground attack, it will definitely do so. He would conduct ground attacks alongside air strikes. If this happens, Israeli troops, armored vehicles and artillery will enter the Lebanese border.
Since the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, the military capabilities of both sides have increased significantly. Israel didn’t even have the Iron Dome defense system at the time, but it does now. Hezbollah had 3 to 5 thousand fighters at the time, but now has 300,000 to 50,000 fighters. This year, however, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah claimed he had more than 100,000 fighters. Not only that, Hezbollah also claims to have 10,000 to 200,000 rockets.
The First Lebanon War lasted approximately 3 years. The Second Lebanon War ended in just 34 days. Now, how long the third war lasts will depend on when Hezbollah comes to the negotiating table. The big question is what will Iran do? Iran uses Hezbollah as a proxy war. Iran clearly does not want to lose its greatest power in the region. If Iran joins the war, the conflict in the Middle East could deepen.
